Determining concessionary items for “availability payment only” PPP projects: a holistic framework integrating value-for-money and social values
Abstract
Public-private partnerships (PPPs) have been widely applied in infrastructure development around the world. However, reasonable concessionary items are critical to compromise interest conflicts between government agencies and sponsors to ensure project success. A broad literature review centering on PPP transaction structuring revealed two significant research gaps: (1) a lack of attention to the ‘availability payment only’ (APO) funding method and (2) negligence of the public side’s perspective in determining concessionary items. The research objective was to develop a methodological framework for determining concessionary items in APO PPP projects while considering the interests of the public side. This study proposed a value-for-money (VFM) and social values integrated framework which accommodates discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, bargaining game modeling, and multi-objectives decision-making (MODM). This framework enables a decision-making process based on both an indifferent feasible interval of concessionary items under a discount rate agreed upon by both parties and an optimal set of concessionary items. Additionally, results of a sensitivity analysis indicated that project construction profit can significantly affect feasible and optimal concession items, and the optimal concession period is less sensitive to changes in risk allocation. The application of proposed model indicated that this paper successfully provides a methodology for determining a feasible interval and an optimal concession items group tailored to APO PPP projects. This study paves the way towards a platform for the public and private partners to jointly and quickly come up with sound PPP concessional items in light of the win-win principle, particularly under the APO funding mechanism.
Keyword : public–private partnerships, value allocation, optimal concessionary items determination, VFM and social value integration, availability payment only (APO), multi-objectives decision-making (MODM), bargaining game model
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
Agarchand, N., & Laishram, B. (2017). Sustainable infrastructure development challenges through PPP procurement process. International Journal of Managing Projects in Business, 10(3), 642–662. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJMPB-10-2016-0078
Alghamdi, F., Tatari, O., & Alghamdi, L. (2022). A socio-economic multi-objective optimization approach toward enhancing public–private partnerships’ concession agreements in infrastructure development. Journal of Strategic Contracting Negotiation, 6(1), 59–84. https://doi.org/10.1177/20555636221086224
Bakatjan, S., Arikan, M., & Tiong, R. L. (2003). Optimal capital structure model for BOT power projects in Turkey. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 129(1), 89–97. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2003)129:1(89)
Bao, H., Peng, Y., Ablanedo-Rosas, J. H., & Gao, H. (2015). An alternative incomplete information bargaining model for identifying the reasonable concession period of a BOT project. International Journal of Project Management, 33(5), 1151–1159. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2014.12.004
Bao, F., Martek, I., Chen, C., Chan, A. P., & Yu, Y. (2018). Lifecycle performance measurement of public-private partnerships: a case study in China’s water sector. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 22(6), 516–531. https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2018.6048
Bayat, M., Khanzadi, M., & Nasirzadeh, F. (2019). Determining optimal capital structure and concession period length in BOT scheme using trilateral bargaining game model. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 25(1), Article 04018036. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000456
Bayat, M., Khanzadi, M., & Nasirzadeh, F. (2020). Bargaining game model to determine concessionary items in build-operate-transfer contracts. Journal of Construction Engineering Management, 146(2), Article 04019109. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001774
Boardman, A. E., & Vining, A. R. (2012). The political economy of public-private partnerships and analysis of their social value. Annals of Public Cooperative Economics, 83(2), 117–141. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8292.2012.00457.x
Boardman, A., & Hellowell, M. (2017). A comparative analysis and evaluation of specialist PPP units’ methodologies for conducting value for money appraisals. Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis: Research Practice, 19(3), 191–206. https://doi.org/10.1080/13876988.2016.1190083
Brown, M. (2017). Cobb–Douglas functions. In The New Palgrave dictionary of economics (pp. 1–4). Palgrave Macmillan UK. https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5_480-2
Burger, P., & Hawkesworth, I. (2011). How to attain value for money: comparing PPP and traditional infrastructure public procurement. OECD Journal on Budgeting, 11(1), 91–146. https://doi.org/10.1787/budget-11-5kg9zc0pvq6j
Caldwell, N. D., Roehrich, J. K., & George, G. (2017). Social value creation and relational coordination in public-private collaborations. Journal of Management Studies, 54(6), 906–928. https://doi.org/10.1111/joms.12268
Carbonara, N., Costantino, N., & Pellegrino, R. (2014). Concession period for PPPs: A win–win model for a fair risk sharing. International Journal of Project Management, 32(7), 1223–1232. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2014.01.007
China Public Private Partnerships Center. (2022). Monthly report of national PPPs projects development in China. https://www.cpppc.org/jb/1002596.jhtml
Cui, C., Wang, J., Liu, Y., & Coffey, V. (2019). Relationships among value-for-money drivers of public–private partnership infrastructure projects. Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 25(2), Article 04019007. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000479
Farquharson, E., & Yescombe, E. (2011). How to engage with the private sector in public-private partnerships in emerging markets. World Bank Publications. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-7863-2
Feng, K., Wang, S., Li, N., Wu, C., & Xiong, W. (2018). Balancing public and private interests through optimization of concession agreement design for user-pay PPP projects. Journal of Civil Engineering Management, 24(2), 116–129. https://doi.org/10.3846/jcem.2018.455
Feng, Z., Song, J., Yang, X., & Guo, R. (2023). Contractual flexibility, firm effort, and subsidy design: A comparison of PPP project contracts. European Journal of Operational Research, 307(1), 484–496. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2022.09.018
Glendinning, R. (1988). The concept of value for money. International Journal of Public Sector Management, 1(1), 42–50. https://doi.org/10.1108/eb002926
Guo, Y., Su, Y., Chen, C., & Martek, I. (2023). Inclusion of “managing flexibility” valuations in the pricing of PPP projects: a multi-objective decision-making method. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management. https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-07-2022-0672
HM Treasury. (2006). Value for money assessment guidance.
Islam, M. M., & Mohamed, S. (2009). Bid-winning potential optimization for concession schemes with imprecise investment parameters. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 135(8), 690–700. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000032
Ivanova, E., & Masarova, J. (2013). Importance of road infrastructure in the economic development and competitiveness. Economics and Management, 18(2), 263–274. https://doi.org/10.5755/j01.em.18.2.4253
Iyer, K., & Sagheer, M. (2012). Optimization of bid-winning potential and capital structure for build-operate-transfer road projects in India. Journal of Management in Engineering, 28(2), 104–113. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000071
Jin, H., & Liu, C. (2023). Incorporating social benefits in concession price negotiation for public–private partnership contracts. Journal of Legal Affairs and Dispute Resolution in Engineering and Construction, 15(1), 04522040. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)LA.1943-4170.0000582
Jin, H., Liu, S., Liu, C., & Udawatta, N. (2019). Optimizing the concession period of PPP projects for fair allocation of financial risk. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 26(10), 2347–2363. https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-05-2018-0201
Jin, H., Liu, S., Li, J., & Liu, C. (2020a). A game-theoretic approach to developing a concession renegotiation framework for user-pays PPPs. International Journal of Construction Management, 20(6), 642–652. https://doi.org/10.1080/15623599.2020.1738003
Jin, H., Liu, S., Li, J., & Liu, C. (2020b). Imperfect information bargaining model for determining concession period of PPPs under revenue uncertainty. Journal of Legal Affairs Dispute Resolution in Engineering Construction, 12(2), 04520012. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)LA.1943-4170.0000382
Jin, H., Liu, S., Sun, J., & Liu, C. (2021). Determining concession periods and minimum revenue guarantees in public-private-partnership agreements. European Journal of Operational Research, 291(2), 512–524. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2019.12.013
Khanzadi, M., Nasirzadeh, F., & Alipour, M. (2012). Integrating system dynamics and fuzzy logic modeling to determine concession period in BOT projects. Automation in Construction, 22, 368–376. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2011.09.015
Kivleniece, I., & Quelin, B. V. (2012). Creating and capturing value in public-private ties: A private actor’s perspective. Academy of Management Review, 37(2), 272–299. https://doi.org/10.5465/amr.2011.0004
Kweun, J. Y., Wheeler, P. K., & Gifford, J. L. (2018). Evaluating highway public-private partnerships: Evidence from US value for money studies. Transport Policy, 62, 12–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2017.03.009
Laursen, M., & Svejvig, P. (2016). Taking stock of project value creation: A structured literature review with future directions for research and practice. International Journal of Project Management, 34(4), 736–747. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2015.06.007
Li, J., Song, F., & Zhao, C. (2018). Financial compensation strategy of PPP project based on game theory and intelligent optimization. Journal of Intelligent Fuzzy Systems, 35(3), 2697–2702. https://doi.org/10.3233/JIFS-169621
Li, Y., Wang, X., & Wang, Y. (2017). Using bargaining game theory for risk allocation of public-private partnership projects: Insights from different alternating offer sequences of participants. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(3), Article 04016102. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001249
Liou, F.-m., Yang, C.-h., Chen, B., & Chen, W. (2011). Identifying the Pareto-front approximation for negotiations of BOT contracts with a multi-objective genetic algorithm. Construction Management Economics, 29(5), 535–548. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2011.564196
Liu, M., Zhang, X., Zhang, M., Feng, Y., Liu, Y., Wen, J., & Liu, L. (2021). Influencing factors of carbon emissions in transportation industry based on CD function and LMDI decomposition model: China as an example. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 90, Article 106623. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2021.106623
Liu, J., Guo, Y., Martek, I., Chen, C., & Tian, J. (2022). A phase-oriented evaluation framework for China’s PPP projects. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 29(9), 3737–3753. https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-03-2021-0238
Lv, J., Zhang, Y.-y., & Zhou, W. (2020). Alternative model to determine the optimal government subsidies in construction stage of PPP rail transit projects under dynamic uncertainties. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2020, Article 3928463. https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/3928463
Martins, J., Marques, R. C., & Cruz, C. O. (2014). Maximizing the value for money of PPP arrangements through flexibility: An application to airports. Journal of Air Transport Management, 39, 72–80. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2014.04.003
Meduri Surya, S., & Annamalai Thillai, R. (2013). Unit costs of public and PPP road projects: Evidence from India. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(1), 35–43. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000546
Ministry of Finance. (2014a). Notice on issues related to the promotion and application of public-private partnerships model. http://jrs.mof.gov.cn/zhengwuxinxi/zhengcefabu/201409/t20140924_1143760.html
Ministry of Finance. (2014b). Notice on printing and distributing the guidelines (trial) for public-private partnerships. http://www.gov.cn/gongbao/content/2015/content_2835273.htm
Ministry of Finance. (2015a). Notice on issuing the guidelines for the demonstration of financial affordability of PPP projects. https://www.gov.cn/gongbao/content/2015/content_2897169.htm
Ministry of Finance. (2015b). Notice on publishing value-for-money guides (trial) of PPP. http://jrs.mof.gov.cn/zhengcefabu/201512/t20151228_1634669.htm
Ministry of Finance. (2016). Notice on fiscal management interim measures of public-private partnership projects. http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2016-10/21/content_5122668.htm
Mochon, P., Mochon, A., & Saez, Y. (2022). Combinatorial versus sequential auctions to allocate PPP highway projects. Transport Policy, 117, 23–39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.12.015
Moore, M. A., Boardman, A. E., & Vining, A. R. (2017). Analyzing risk in PPP provision of utility services: A social welfare perspective. Utilities Policy, 48, 210–218. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jup.2017.08.008
Morris, P. W. (2013). Reconstructing project management. John Wiley & Sons. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118536698
Nash Jr, J. F. (1950). The bargaining problem. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 18(2), 155–162. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907266
National People’s Congress. (2017). Law of the People’s Republic of China on bid invitation and bidding. http://www.npc.gov.cn/npc/c30834/201801/01c573f6c46340edb0bc0cc0ca97d6a5.shtml
Ng, S. T., Xie, J., Skitmore, M., & Cheung, Y. K. (2007). A fuzzy simulation model for evaluating the concession items of public–private partnership schemes. Automation in Construction, 17(1), 22–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2007.02.010
Oerlemans, L. A. G., Chan, K.-Y., & Volschenk, J. (2016). Willingness to pay for green electricity: A review of the contingent valuation literature and its sources of error. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 66, 875–885. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.08.054
Osborne, M. J., & Rubinstein, A. (1994). A course in game theory. MIT Press.
Osei-Kyei, R., & Chan, A. P. C. (2015). Review of studies on the critical success factors for public–private partnership (PPP) projects from 1990 to 2013. International Journal of Project Management, 33(6), 1335–1346. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2015.02.008
Park, J. H. (2014). Transport PPP decisions in Korea: value for money assessment and risk quantification [Doctoral dissertation]. University of Southampton, London.
Repolho, H. M., Antunes, A. P., & Church, R. L. (2016). PPP motorway ventures–an optimization model to locate interchanges with social welfare and private profit objectives. Transportmetrica A: Transport Science, 12(9), 832–852. https://doi.org/10.1080/23249935.2016.1185478
Shang, L., & Abdel Aziz, A. M. (2020). Stackelberg game theory-based optimization model for design of payment mechanism in performance-based PPPs. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(4), Article 04020029. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001806
Sharafi, A., Amalnick, M. S., & Taleizadeh, A. A. (2022). Optimal readjustment of contract variables and the financial outcome of PPP projects in the operation period. Construction Management Economics, 40(2), 87–103. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2021.2007536
Sharma, D., & Cui, Q. (2012). Design of concession and annual payments for availability payment public private partnership (PPP) projects. Paper presented at the Construction Research Congress 2012: Construction Challenges in a Flat World. https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784412329.230
Shen, L., Bao, H., Wu, Y., & Lu, W. (2007). Using bargaining-game theory for negotiating concession period for BOT-type contract. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 133(5), 385–392. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2007)133:5(385)
Siemiatycki, M., & Farooqi, N. (2012). Value for money and risk in public–private partnerships: Evaluating the evidence. Journal of the American Planning Association, 78(3), 286–299. https://doi.org/10.1080/01944363.2012.715525
Sun, H., Jia, S., & Wang, Y. (2019). Optimal equity ratio of BOT highway project under government guarantee and revenue sharing. Transportmetrica A: Transport Science, 15(1), 114–134. https://doi.org/10.1080/23249935.2018.1486340
Sun, Y., & Zhang, L. (2015). Balancing public and private stakeholder interests in BOT concessions: Minimum revenue guarantee and royalty scheme applied to a water treatment project in China. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 141(2), Article 04014070. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000930
Swanson, R., & Sakhrani, V. (2020). Appropriating the value of flexibility in PPP megaproject design. Journal of Management in Engineering, 36(5), Article 05020010. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000770
Ullah, F., Ayub, B., Siddiqui, S. Q., & Thaheem, M. J. (2016). A review of public-private partnership: critical factors of concession period. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 21(3), 269–300. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFMPC-02-2016-0011
Viegas, J. M. (2010). Questioning the need for full amortization in PPP contracts for transport Infrastructure. Research in Transportation Economics, 30(1), 139–144. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2010.10.014
Wang, H., Xiong, W., Wu, G., & Zhu, D. (2018). Public–private partnership in Public Administration discipline: a literature review. Public Management Review, 20(2), 293–316. https://doi.org/10.1080/14719037.2017.1313445
Wang, D.-Y., Wang, X., & Ding, R.-X. (2022). Welfare maximization with the least subsidy: Pricing model for surface water loop heat pump PPP projects considering occupancy rate growth and coefficient of performance. Renewable Energy, 194, 1131–1141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2022.05.140
Xiong, W., Wang, H., Casady, C. B., & Han, Y. (2022). The impact of renegotiations on public values in public–private partnerships: a delphi survey in China. Journal of Management in Engineering, 38(5), Article 04022040. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0001075
Xu, J.-W., Jiang, L., & Moon, S. (2017). Determination of the optimal concession period for BOT contract projects based on a discrete stochastic process model. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(4), Article 04016119. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001231
Yu, C., & Lam, K. C. (2013). A decision support system for the determination of concession period length in transportation project under BOT contract. Automation in Construction, 31, 114–127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2012.11.012
Yuan, J., Ji, W., Guo, J., & Skibniewski, M. J. (2019). Simulation-based dynamic adjustments of prices and subsidies for transportation PPP projects based on stakeholders’ satisfaction. Transportation, 46, 2309–2345. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-018-9940-1
Yuan, J., Zhang, L., Tan, Y., & Skibniewski, M. J. (2020). Evaluating the regional social sustainability contribution of public-private partnerships in China: The development of an indicator system. Sustainable Development, 28(1), 259–278. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2001
Zhang, X. (2009). Win–win concession period determination methodology. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 135(6), 550–558. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000012
Zhao, X., Bai, Y., & Ding, L. (2021). Incentives for personal carbon account: An evolutionary game analysis on public-private-partnership reconstruction. Journal of Cleaner Production, 282, Article 125358. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.125358