Should Bitcoin be held under the U.S. partisan conflict?
Abstract
This paper probes the interrelationship between Bitcoin price (BP) and the U.S. partisan conflict (PC) by performing the bootstrap full- and sub-sample Granger causality tests. The positive influence from PC to BP reveals that Bitcoin can be considered as a tool to avoid the uncertainty caused by the rise in PC. However, this view cannot be supported by the negative impact, the major reason is that the burst of bubble undermines the hedging ability of Bitcoin. The above results are inconsistent with the intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM), underlining that high PC may drive BP to rise, in order to compensate for the losses and costs from factionalism. Conversely, BP has a negative impact on PC, suggesting that the U.S. political situation can be reflected by the Bitcoin market. Under the circumstance of the fiercer factionalism in the U.S., this investigation can benefit investors and related authorities.
First published online 04 February 2021
Keyword : Bitcoin price, U.S. partisan conflict, rolling- window, dynamic nexus
How to Cite
Su, C.-W., Qin, M., Zhang, X.-L., Tao, R., & Umar, M. (2021). Should Bitcoin be held under the U.S. partisan conflict?. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 27(3), 511-529. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2021.14058
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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Clance, M. W., Gupta, R., & Wohar, M. E. (2018). Geopolitical risks and recessions in a panel of advanced economies: Evidence from over a century of data. University of Pretoria, Department of Economics. https://repository.up.ac.za/bitstream/handle/2263/68295/Clance_Geopolitical_2019.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
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Demir, E., Gozgor, G., Lau, C. K. M., & Vigne, S. A. (2018). Does economic policy uncertainty predict the Bitcoin returns? An empirical investigation. Finance Research Letters, 26, 145–149. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2018.01.005
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Elwell, C. K., Murphy, M. M., & Seitzinger, M. V. (2013). Bitcoin: Questions, answers, and analysis of legal issues (Congressional Research Service Report).
Fang, L., Bouri, E., Gupta, R., & Roubaud, D. (2019). Does global economic uncertainty matter for the volatility and hedging effectiveness of Bitcoin? International Review of Financial Analysis, 61, 29–36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2018.12.010
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Gozgor, G., Tiwari, A. K., Demir, E., & Akron, S. (2019). The relationship between Bitcoin returns and trade policy uncertainty. Finance Research Letters, 29, 75–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2019.03.016
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Hanson, B. E. (1992). Tests for parameter instability in regressions with I(1) processes. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20(1), 45–59. https://doi.org/10.1198/073500102753410381
Jiang, X. D., & Shi, Y. L. (2018). Does US partisan conflict affect US–China bilateral trade? International Review of Economics & Finance. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3122322
Jiang, Y., Ren, Y. S., Ma, C. Q., Liu, J. L., & Sharp, B. (2020). Does the price of strategic commodities respond to U.S. partisan conflict? Resources Policy, 66, 101617. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101617
Kalyvas, A., Papakyriakou, P., Sakkas, A., & Urquhart, A. (2019). What drives Bitcoin’s price crash risk? Economics Letters, 191, 108777. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2019.108777
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Kliber, A., Marszałek, P., Musiałkowska, I., & Świerczyńska, K. (2019). Bitcoin: Safe haven, hedge or diversifier? Perception of bitcoin in the context of a country’s economic situation – A stochastic volatility approach. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 524, 246–257. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2019.04.145
Li, Z. Z., Tao, R., Su, C. W., & Lobont, O. R. (2018). Does Bitcoin bubble burst? Quality & Quantity, 53(2), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-018-0728-3
Luther, W. J., & Salter, A. W. (2017). Bitcoin and the bailout. Quarterly Review of Economics & Finance, 66, 50–56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2017.01.009
Mamun, M. A., Uddin, G. S., Suleman, M. T., & Kang, S. H. (2020). Geopolitical risk, uncertainty and Bitcoin investment. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 54, 123107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2019.123107
Matkovskyy, R., & Jalan, A. (2019). From financial markets to Bitcoin markets: A fresh look at the contagion effect. Finance Research Letters, 31, 93–97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2019.04.007
Neves, R. H. D. (2020). Bitcoin pricing: impact of attractiveness variable. Financial Innovation, 6(1), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-020-00176-3
Nyblom, J. (1989). Testing for the constancy of parameters over time. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 84(405), 223–230. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1989.10478759
Pesaran, M. H., & Timmermann, A. (2005). Small sample properties of forecasts from autoregressive models under structural breaks. Journal of Econometrics, 129(1–2), 183–217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2004.09.007
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Pyo, S., & Lee, J. (2019). Do FOMC and macroeconomic announcements affect Bitcoin prices? Finance Research Letters, 37, 101386. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2019.101386
Qin, M., Su, C. W., & Tao, R. (2020). BitCoin: A new basket for eggs? Economic Modelling (in Press). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.02.031
Regilme, S. S. F. (2019). The decline of American power and Donald Trump: Reflections on human rights, neoliberalism, and the world order. Geoforum, 102, 157–166. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2019.04.010
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