Geopolitics of technology: A new battleground?
Abstract
This study aims to consider the causality between global geopolitical risk (GPR) and technology (TEC) using the rolling window approach. The results reveal that GPR has a significant impact on TEC across different sub-samples. It points out that GPR increases TEC and both are highly integrated and the geopolitical constraints are pivotal to TEC development. On the other hand, TEC leads GPR due to competition between countries for geopolitical dominance and security. The results back the Becker Model, which reveals that divergence of interests between countries drive TEC competition and systematically associated with GPR in a country. The international community should create a mechanism that supports interoperability and the states should pay attention to TECs that are critical to economic and strategic interests in the long run. Moreover, the states could enhance cooperation with the private sector which is an important determinant.
First published online 02 February 2022
Keyword : technology, geopolitical risk, innovation, rolling window
How to Cite
Khan, K., Su, C.-W., Umar, M., & Zhang, W. (2022). Geopolitics of technology: A new battleground?. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 28(2), 442–462. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2022.16028
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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Bonciu, F. (2017). The race towards the future: Geopolitics versus technology: Implications for Romania. Romanian Journal of European Affairs, 17(1), 75–84.
Brown, I., & Korff, D. (2009). Terrorism and the proportionality of internet surveillance. European Journal of Criminology, 6(2), 119–134. https://doi.org/10.1177/1477370808100541
Brzoska, M. (2006). Trends in global military and civilian research and development (R&D) and their changing interface. In Proceedings of the International Seminar on Defence Finance and Economics, 19, 289–302.
Caldara, D., & Iacoviello, M. (2018). Measuring geopolitical risk. Federal Reserve Board, International Finance Discussion Paper, 1222. https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2018.1222
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Chin, W. (2019). Technology, war and the state: past, present and future. International Affairs, 95(4), 765–783. https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiz106
Dahlman, C. (2007). Technology, globalization, and international competitiveness: Challenges for developing countries. In United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (Ed.), Industrial development for the 21st century: Sustainable development perspectives (pp. 29–83).
Diniz, C. C. (2019). The science and technology race and productive restructuring: Geoeconomic and geopolitical impacts. Revista Brasileira de Estudos Urbanos e Regionais, 21(2), 241–257. https://doi.org/10.22296/2317-1529.2019v21n2p241
Flint, C., & Xiaotong, Z. (2019). Historical–geopolitical contexts and the transformation of Chinese foreign policy. The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 12(3), 295–331. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjip/poz011
Friedman, G. (2019). Geopolitics and technology [Conference presentation]. World.Minds Annual Symposium, Zurich, Switzerland.
Fritsch, S. (2011). Technology and global affairs. International Studies Perspectives, 12(1), 27–45. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1528-3585.2010.00417.x
Fritsch, S. (2017). Technology, conflict and international relations. In S. Yetiv & P. James (Eds.), Advancing interdisciplinary approaches to international relations (pp. 115–151). Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-40823-1_5
Gill, P., Corner, E., Thornton, A., & Conway, M. (2015). What are the roles of the Internet in terrorism? Measuring online behaviours of convicted UK Terrorists. VOX-Pol.
Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424–438. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912791
Hanson, B. E. (2002). Tests for parameter instability in regressions with I(1) processes. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20(1), 45–59. https://doi.org/10.1198/073500102753410381
Herrera, G. L. (2003). Technology and international systems. Millennium, 32(3), 559–593. https://doi.org/10.1177/03058298030320031001
Hulsman, J. C., & Liedtke, B. N. (2019). Digital geopolitics and political risk. Aspenia online, International Analysis and Commentary.
Khan, K., Su, C. W., Xiao, Y. D., Zhu, H., & Zhang, X. (2020a). Trends in tourism under economic uncertainty. Tourism Economics, 27(4), 841–858. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816620909608
Khan, K., Su, C. W., & Tao, R. (2020b). Does oil prices cause financial liquidity crunch? Perspective from geopolitical risk. Defence and Peace Economics, 32(3), 312–324. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2020.1712640
Khan, K., Su, C. W., & Rizvi, S. K. A. (2020c). Guns and blood: A review of geopolitical risk and defence expenditures. Defence and Peace Economics, 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2020.1802836
Lee, B. (2016). The impact of cyber capabilities in the Syrian civil war. Small Wars Journal.
Lister, T., & Cruickshanck, P. (2013). Intercepted communications called critical in terror investigations. Retrieved February 6, 2018, from https://edition.cnn.com/2013/06/11/us/nsadata-gathering-impact/index.html
Mahmood, R., & Jetter, M. (2020). Communications technology and terrorism. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 64(1), 127–166. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002719843989
Mallik, A. (2004). Technology and security in the 21st century: A demand-side perspective. Oxford University Press.
Miailhe, N. (2018). The geopolitics of artificial intelligence: The return of empires? Politique étrangère, 3, 105–117. https://doi.org/10.3917/pe.183.0105
Morgenthau, H. J. (1978). Politics among nations: The struggle for power and peace. (5th ed., revised). Alfred A. Knopf Inc.
Nasca, D. S. (2017). The influence of technology in amphibious warfare and its impact on U.S. geopolitical strategy from 1898 to 1945 [Doctoral dissertations]. Salve Regina University.
Naughton, J. (2016). Death by drone strike, dished out by algorithm. Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad, Pakistan.
Nyblom, J. (1989). Testing for the constancy of parameters over time. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 84(405), 223–230. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1989.10478759
Qin, M., Su, C. W., & Tao, R. (2021). BitCoin: A new basket for eggs? Economic Modelling, 94, 896–907. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.02.031
Rahman, M. F. B. A. (2020). The intersection of emergent technologies and geopolitics (RSIS working paper). Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.
Rühlig, T., Seaman, J., & Voelsen, D. (2019). 5G and the U.S.-China tech rivalry-a test for Europe’s future in the digital age: How can Europe shift back from back foot to front foot? External Publications.
Shaw, M. (2005). The new Western way of war: Risk-transfer war and its crisis in Iraq. Polity.
Shukur, G., & Mantalos, P. (2000). A simple investigation of the granger-causality test in integrated-cointegrated VAR systems. Journal of Applied Statistics, 27(8), 1021–1031. https://doi.org/10.1080/02664760050173346
Sims, C. A, Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (1990). Inference in linear time series models with some unit roots. Econometrica, 58(1), 113–144. https://doi.org/10.2307/2938337
Singer, P. W., & Brooking, E. T. (2018). LikeWar: The weaponization of social media. Eamon Dolan Books.
Smith, E. D. (1994). China, technology and the Spratly Islands: The geopolitical impact of new technologies [Doctoral Dissertations]. AAI9539594. https://digitalcommons.salve.edu/dissertations/AAI9539594
Solon, O. (2018, August 22). Facebook removes 652 fake accounts and pages meant to influence world politics. The Guardian.
Su, C. W., Khan, K., Tao, R., & Nicoleta-Claudia, M. (2019). Does geopolitical risk strengthen or depress oil prices and financial liquidity? Evidence from Saudi Arabia. Energy, 187, 116003. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2019.116003
Su, C. W., Khan, K., Tao, R., & Umar, M. (2020). A review of resource curse burden on inflation in Venezuela. Energy, 204, 117925. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.117925
Su, C. W., Yuan, X., Tao, R., & Umar, M. (2021a). Can new energy vehicles help to achieve carbon neutrality targets? Journal of Environmental Management, 297, 113348. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113348
Su, C. W., Song, Y., & Umar, M. (2021b). Financial aspects of marine economic growth: From the perspective of coastal provinces and regions in China. Ocean & Coastal Management, 204, 105550. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2021.105550
Su, C. W., Cai, X. Y., Qin, M., Tao, R., & Umar, M. (2021c). Can bank credit withstand falling house price in China? International Review of Economics & Finance, 71, 257–267. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2020.09.013
Su, C. W., Qin, M., Zhang, X. L., Tao, R., & Umar, M. (2021d). Should Bitcoin be held under the US partisan conflict? Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 27(3), 511–529. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2021.14058
Su, C. W., Sun, T., Ahmad, S., & Mirza, N. (2021e). Does institutional quality and remittances inflow crowd-in private investment to avoid Dutch Disease? A case for emerging seven (E7) economies. Resources Policy, 72, 102111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102111
Suleman, F., Low, M., Moon, S., & Morgan, S. G. (2020). New business models for research and development with affordability requirements are needed to achieve fair pricing of medicines. BMJ, 368, l4408. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.l4408
Sun, T. T., Su, C. W., Mirza, N., & Umar, M. (2021). How does trade policy uncertainty affect agriculture commodity prices? Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 66, 101514. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2021.101514
Tao, R., Su, C. W., Xiao, Y., Dai, K., & Khalid, F. (2021a). Robo advisors, algorithmic trading and investment management: Wonders of fourth industrial revolution in financial markets. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 163, 120421. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120421
Tao, R., Su, C. W., Yaqoob, T., & Hammal, M. (2021b). Do financial and non-financial stocks hedge against lockdown in Covid-19? An event study analysis. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2021.1948881
Tekir, G. (2020). Huawei, 5G network and digital geopolitics. International Journal of Politics and Security, 2(4), 113–135.
Tellis, A. J. (2020). The return of U.S.-China strategic competition. In A. J. Tellis, A. Szalwinski, & M. Wills (Eds.), Strategic Asia 2020: U.S.-China Competition for Global Influence (pp. 3–43). The National Bureau of Asian Research, Washington, DC.
Tian, X., Kou, G., & Zhang, W. (2020). Geographic distance, venture capital and technological performance: Evidence from Chinese enterprises. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 158, 120155. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120155
Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector auto-regression with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometric, 66(1–2), 225–250. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01616-8
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