Macroprudential policy, house price fluctuation and household consumption
Abstract
House purchasing has become an important asset allocation choice for most families in China. House price fluctuation is also one of the important factors that leads to systematic risks in the financial market, which might cause economic crises and then reduce consumption. Since China formally established the dual-pillar management framework of macroprudential policy in 2019, it has played a crucial role in maintaining the stability of house prices. This article employs the mediating effect model to comb the internal mechanism of the interaction between macroprudential policies, housing prices, and household consumption and test by the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2004 to 2019. Experience implies that macroprudential policy can not only stabilize consumption demand directly and effectively, but also affect consumption indirectly through the cross of the real estate market and the credit market. Further research has also found that macroprudential policies may fail between regions with higher GDP and high-income groups. This finding will contribute to research on the relationship between macroprudential policies and real economics. In addition, it would be helpful in making policies to increase consumption.
Keyword : macroprudential policy, household consumption, mediating effect
How to Cite
Qi, Y., Qin, H., Liu, P., Liu, J., Raslanas, S., & Banaitienė, N. (2022). Macroprudential policy, house price fluctuation and household consumption. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 28(3), 804–830. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2022.16787
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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Flemming, J. S. (1973). The consumption function when capital markets are imperfect: The permanent income hypothesis reconsidered. Oxford Economic Papers, 25(2), 160–172. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.oep.a041251
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Alam, Z., Alter, A., Elseman, J., Gelos, R. G., Kang, H., Narita, M., Nier, E., & Wang, N. (2019). Digging deeper – Evidence on the effects of macroprudential policies from a new database (IMF Working Paper 066). International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498302708.001
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Alp, E., & Seven, Ü. (2019). The dynamics of household final consumption: The role of wealth channel. Central Bank Review, 19(1), 21–32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2019.03.002
Alpanda, S., & Zubairy, S. (2017). Addressing household indebtedness: Monetary, fiscal or macroprudential policy? European Economic Review, 92, 47–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2016.11.004
Andersen, A. L., Duus, C., & Jensen, T. L. (2016). Household debt and spending during the financial crisis: Evidence from Danish micro data. European Economic Review, 89, 96–115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2016.06.006
Angeloni, I., Faia, E., & Lo Duca, M. (2015). Monetary policy and risk taking. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 52(C), 285–307. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2014.12.001
Anzoategui, D., Chivakul, M., & Maliszewski, W. (2015). Financial distortions in China: A general equilibrium approach (IMF Working Paper 274). International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513565149.001
Aoki, K., Proudman, J., & Vlieghe, G. (2004). House prices, consumption, and monetary policy: A financial accelerator approach. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 13(4), 414–435. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2004.06.003
Attanasio, O., Blow, L., Hamilton, R., & Leicester, A. (2005). Booms and busts: Consumption, house prices and expectations (IFS Working Papers W05/24). https://doi.org/10.1920/wp.ifs.2005.0524
Attanasio, O. P., Blow, L., Hamilton, R., & Leicester, A. (2009). Booms and busts: Consumption, house prices and expectations. Economica, 76(301), 20–50. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0335.2008.00708.x
Auclert, A., Rognlie, M., & Straub, L. (2020). Micro jumps, macro humps: Monetary policy and business cycles in an estimated HANK model (NBER Working Paper No. 26647). https://doi.org/10.3386/w26647
Baiardi, D., Manera, M., & Menegatti, M. (2013). Consumption and precautionary saving: An empirical analysis under both financial and environmental risks. Economic Modelling, 30, 157–166. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.09.006
Berger, A. N., & Sedunov, J. (2017). Bank liquidity creation and real economic output. Journal of Banking & Finance, 81, 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2017.04.005
Bernanke, B., Gertler, M., & Gilchrist, S. (1999). The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework. Handbook of Macroeconomics, 1(C), 1341–1393. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0048(99)10034-X
Bostic, R., Gabriel, S., & Painter, G. (2009). Housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumption: New evidence from micro data. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 39(1), 79–89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2008.06.002
Braggion, F., Dwarkasing, M., & Ongena, S. (2018). Household wealth inequality, entrepreneurs’ financial constraints and the Great Recession: Evidence from the Kauffman Firm Survey. Small Business Economics, 50, 533–543. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-017-9906-2
Budría, S., & Moro-Egido, A. (2014). Overqualification, skill mismatches and wages in private sector employment in Europe. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 20(3), 457–483. https://doi.org/10.3846/20294913.2014.883341
Caballero, R. J., & Simsek, A. (2020). A risk-centric model of demand recessions and speculation. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 135(3), 1493–1566. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjaa008
Campbell, J. Y., & Cocco, J. F. (2007). How do house prices affect consumption? Evidence from micro data. Journal of Monetary Economics, 54(3), 591–621. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2005.10.016
Chen, J., Hardin, W., & Hu, M. (2020). Housing, wealth, income and consumption: China and homeownership heterogeneity. Real Estate Economics, 48(2), 373–405. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.12245
Cherednychenko, O. O., & Meindertsma, J. M. (2019). Irresponsible lending in the post-crisis era: Is the EU Consumer Credit Directive fit for its purpose? Journal of Consumer Policy, 42(4), 483–519. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10603-019-09421-4
China Economic Trends Research Institute. (2019). China household wealth survey report 2019. http://www.ce.cn/
Credit Suisse Research Institute. (2020). Global wealth report 2020. https://www.credit-suisse.com/media/assets/corporate/docs/about-us/research/publications/global-wealth-report-2020-en.pdf
Crowe, C., Dell’Ariccia, G., Igan, D., & Rabanal, P. (2013). How to deal with real estate booms: Lessons from country experiences. Journal of Financial Stability, 9(3), 300–319. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2013.05.003
Čeh Časni, A. (2018, May). The housing wealth effect before and after the 2008 financial crisis: Panel vector autoregression approach. In ISCCRO’18: The 2nd International Statistical Conference: New Advances in Statistical Methods Applications for a Better World. Opatija, Croatia.
De Nardi, M., French, E., & Jones, J. B. (2010). Why do the elderly save? The role of medical expenses. Journal of Political Economy, 118(1), 39–75. https://doi.org/10.1086/651674
Dynan, K. E., & Edelberg, W. (2013). The relationship between leverage and household spending behavior: Evidence from the 2007–2009 survey of consumer finances. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 95(5), 425–448. https://doi.org/10.20955/r.95.425-448
European Systemic Risk Board. (2018). The ESRB handbook on operationalising macroprudential policy in the banking sector. ESRB. https://www.esrb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/reports/esrb.report180115_handbook~c9160ed5b1.en.pdf
Feng, S.-T., Peng, C.-W., Yang, C.-H., & Chen, P.-W. (2021). Non-linear relationships between house size and price. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 25(3), 240–253. https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2021.14607
Flemming, J. S. (1973). The consumption function when capital markets are imperfect: The permanent income hypothesis reconsidered. Oxford Economic Papers, 25(2), 160–172. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.oep.a041251
Funke, M., & Paetz, M. (2013). Housing prices and the business cycle: An empirical application to Hong Kong. Journal of Housing Economics, 22(1), 62–76. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2012.11.001
Gan, J. (2010). Housing wealth and consumption growth: Evidence from a large panel of households. Review of Financial Studies, 23(6), 2229–2267. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhp127
Gomes, F. A. R. (2008).The effect of future income uncertainty in savings decision. Economics Letters, 98(3), 269–274. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2007.05.008
Haseeb, M., Staniewski, M., Mihardjo, L. W. W., & Awruk, K. (2021). Does forest disturbance matter to climate degradation? Evidence from top Asian economies. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 27(3), 583–601. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2021.14254
He, D., & Wang, H. (2012). Dual-track interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy in China. China Economic Review, 23(4), 928–947. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2012.04.013
James, L. R., & Brett, J. M. (1984). Mediators, moderators, and tests for mediation. Journal of Applied Psychology, 69(2), 307–321. https://doi.org/10.1037/0021-9010.69.2.307
Jawadi, F., Sousa, R. M., & Traverso, R. (2017). On the macroeconomic and wealth effects of unconventional monetary policy. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 21(5), 1189–1204. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1365100515000292
Kaklauskas, A., Zavadskas, E., & Raslanas, S. (2009). Modelling of real estate sector: The case for Lithuania. Transformations in Business & Economics, 8(1), 101–120.
Katagiri, M. (2018). House price synchronization and financial openness: A dynamic factor model approach (IMF Working Paper 209). International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484378243.001
Keynes, J. M. (2018). The general theory of employment, interest and money. Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-70344-2
Landi, V. N. (2017). Capital controls, macroprudential measures and monetary policy interactions in an emerging economy (Economic Working Paper No 1154). Temi Di Discussione. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3084025
Li, M., & Shen, K. (2013). Population aging and housing consumption: A nonlinear relationship in China. China & World Economy, 21(5), 60–77. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-124X.2013.12039.x
Liu, G., & Molise, T. (2020). The optimal monetary and macroprudential policies for the South African economy. South African Journal of Economics, 88(3), 368–404. https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12260
Liu, K. (2020). Chinese consumer finance: A primer. Frontiers of Business Research in China, 14(1), 9. https://doi.org/10.1186/s11782-020-00077-3
Mendicino, C., & Punzi, M. T. (2014). House prices, capital inflows and macroprudential policy. Journal of Banking & Finance, 49, 337–355. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.06.007
Mian, A., Rao, K., & Sufi, A. (2013). Household balance sheets, consumption, and the economic slump. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 128(4), 1687–1726. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjt020
Modigliani, F. (1966). The life cycle hypothesis of saving, the demand for wealth and the supply of capital. Social Research, 33(2), 160−217.
Morsink, J., & Krznar, I. (2014). With great power comes great responsibility: Macroprudential tools at work in Canada (IMF Working Paper 083). International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484383445.001
National Bureau of Statistics of China. (n.d.). http://www.stats.gov.cn/
Powell, D. (2020). Quantile treatment effects in the presence of covariates. Review of Economics and Statistics, 102(5), 994–1005. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00858
Rubio, M., & Comunale, M. (2017). Lithuania in the Euro Area: Monetary transmission and macroprudential policies. Eastern European Economics, 55(1), 29–49. https://doi.org/10.1080/00128775.2016.1255558
Santos, M., & Sequeira, T. N. (2014). Skills mismatch and wage inequality: Evidence for different countries in Europe. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 19(1), S425–S453. https://doi.org/10.3846/20294913.2013.880086
Soava, G., Mehedintu, A., & Sterpu, M. (2020). Relations between income inequality, economic growth and poverty threshold: New evidences from EU countries panels. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 26(2), 290–310. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2019.11335
Soto-Acosta, P., Popa, S., & Palacios-Marqués, D. (2016). E-business, organizational innovation and firm performance in manufacturing SMEs: An empirical study in Spain. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 22(6), 885–904. https://doi.org/10.3846/20294913.2015.1074126
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