Economic complexity and bilateral trade flows in selected COMESA and East Asia countries
Abstract
A particular country’s productive knowledge and sophistication become a crucial determinant for the exported products in the increasingly integrated global trade. However, studies that emphasize the connection between economic complexity and trade flows are still sparse. This research aims to examine the role of economic complexity on bilateral trade flows of 27 countries in COMESA and East Asia using the gravity model from 1995 till 2019. Based on countries’ geographical regions and income levels, the empirical estimation of the study applied the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) estimator. The main results are robust to various model specifications and consistent with the expectations of the gravity model indicators. The study found strong empirical evidence that the expansion of economic sophistication and diversification enlarges trade flows of different exported goods. Explicitly, economic complexity increases the exports of machinery and transport equipment alongside manufactured products, while its effects on agricultural exports are negligible. Thus, this study proposes that the countries should engage in more sophisticated Research and Development (R&D), attract multinational companies, establish industrial policies, and improve their productivity by utilizing the existing production network. They should move to a more diversified production and trade structure to enhance their bilateral trade flows.
Keyword : economic complexity, bilateral trade flows, export diversification, gravity model, PPML, regional trade agreement
How to Cite
Abdi, A. H., Zaidi, M. A. S., & Karim, Z. A. (2023). Economic complexity and bilateral trade flows in selected COMESA and East Asia countries. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 29(3), 846–873. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.18682
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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Güneri, B., & Yalta, A. Y. (2021). Does economic complexity reduce output volatility in developing countries? Bulletin of Economic Research, 73(3), 411–431. https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.12257
Gupta, R., Gozgor, G., Kaya, H., & Demir, E. (2019). Effects of geopolitical risks on trade flows: Evidence from the gravity model. Eurasian Economic Review, 9(4), 515–530. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40822-018-0118-0
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Hausmann, R., & Hidalgo, C. A. (2011). The network structure of economic output. Journal of Economic Growth, 16(4), 309–342. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-011-9071-4
Hausmann, R., Hidalgo, C. A., Bustos, S., Coscia, M., Simoes, A., & Yildirim, M. A. (2014). The atlas of economic complexity: Mapping paths to prosperity. Mit Press. https://doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/9647.001.0001
Hausmann, R., & Klinger, B. (2006). Structural transformation and patterns of comparative advantage in the product space (KSG Working Paper No. RWP06-041. CID Working Paper No. 128). SSRN. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.939646
Hidalgo, C. A. (2021). Economic complexity theory and applications. Nature Reviews Physics, 3(2), 92–113. https://doi.org/10.1038/s42254-020-00275-1
Hidalgo, C. A., Balland, P.-A., Boschma, R., Delgado, M., Feldman, M., Frenken, K., Glaeser, E., He, C., Kogler, D. F., Morrison, A., Neffke, F., Rigby, D., Stern, S., Zheng, S., & Zhu, S. (2018). The principle of relatedness. In A. J. Morales, C. Gershenson, D. Braha, A. A. Minai, & Y. Bar-Yam (Eds.), Unifying themes in Complex Systems IX (pp. 451–457). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-96661-8_46
Hidalgo, C. A., & Hausmann, R. (2009). The building blocks of economic complexity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(26), 10570–10575. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0900943106
Hidalgo, C. A., Klinger, B., Barabási, A.-L., & Hausmann, R. (2007). The product space conditions the development of nations. Science, 317(5837), 482–487. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1144581
International Labour Organization. (2019). ILOSTAT Key Indicators of the Labour Market (KILM) (database). www.ilo.org/ilostat/
Jean, S., & Bureau, J.-C. (2015). Do regional trade agreements really boost trade? Estimates for agricultural products (CEPII Working Paper No 2015-09 – June).
Jun, B., Alshamsi, A., Gao, J., & Hidalgo, C. A. (2020). Bilateral relatedness: Knowledge diffusion and the evolution of bilateral trade. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 30(2), 247–277. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00191-019-00638-7
Khan, H., Khan, U., & Khan, M. A. (2020). Causal nexus between economic complexity and FDI: Empirical evidence from time series analysis. The Chinese Economy, 53(5), 374–394. https://doi.org/10.1080/10971475.2020.1730554
Koch, P. (2021). Economic complexity and growth: Can value-added exports better explain the link? Economics Letters, 198, 109682. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109682
Lee, C.-C., & Wang, E.-Z. (2021). Economic complexity and income inequality: Does country risk matter? Social Indicators Research, 154(1), 35–60. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-020-02543-0
Lee, H., & Park, I. (2007). In search of optimised regional trade agreements and applications to East Asia. World Economy, 30(5), 783–806. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2007.01024.x
Luqman, A. O., Abu Bakar, N. A., & Mukhriz Izraf, A. A. (2016). The gravity model approach: An application on the eco was trading bloc. South East European Journal of Economics and Business, 11(1), 67–75. https://doi.org/10.1515/jeb-2016-0005
Lüthje, T. (2001). Intraindustry trade in intermediate goods. International Advances in Economic Research, 7(4), 393–408. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02295769
Mátyás, L. (1997). Proper econometric specification of the gravity model. World Economy, 20(3), 363–368. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9701.00074
Mayer, T., & Zignago, S. (2011). Notes on CEPII’s distances measures: The GeoDist database (CEPII Working Paper No. 2011-25). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1994531
Narayan, S., & Nguyen, T. T. (2016). Does the trade gravity model depend on trading partners? Some evidence from Vietnam and her 54 trading partners. International Review of Economics & Finance, 41, 220–237. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2015.08.010
Neagu, O. (2019). The link between economic complexity and carbon emissions in the European Union countries: A model based on the environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) approach. Sustainability, 11(17), 4753. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11174753
Observatory of Economic Complexity. (2020). Observatory of Economic Complexity Database. Retrieved December 10, 2020, from https://oec.world/en/data-availability
Piermartini, R., & Yotov, Y. (2016). Estimating trade policy effects with structural gravity (CESifo Working Paper Series No. 6009). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2828613
Şeker, A., & Şimdi, H. (2019). The relationship between economic complexity index and export: The case of Turkey and Central Asian and Turkic Republics. Economy of Region, 15(3), 659–669. https://doi.org/10.17059/2019-3-3
Sepehrdoust, H., Davarikish, R., & Setarehie, M. (2019). The knowledge-based products and economic complexity in developing countries. Heliyon, 5(12), e02979. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e02979
Silva, J. S., & Tenreyro, S. (2006). The log of gravity. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 88(4), 641–658. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.88.4.641
Simoes, A. J. G., & Hidalgo, C. A. (2011). The economic complexity observatory: An analytical tool for understanding the dynamics of economic development. Workshops at the Twenty-Fifth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence.
Tinbergen, J. (1962). Shaping the world economy; suggestions for an international economic policy. Twentieth Century Fund.
UN Comtrade. (2021). UN Comtrade Database. Retrieved January 15, 2021, from https://comtradeplus.un.org/data/
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Zainuddin, M. R. K. V., Sarmidi, T., & Khalid, N. (2020). Sustainable production, non-tariff measures, and trade performance in RCEP countries. Sustainability, 12(23), 9969. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12239969
African Union Commission & OECD. (2019). Public policies for productive transformation in East Africa. In Africa’s development dynamics 2019: Achieving productive transformation (pp. 173–196). OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/c30b9e57-en
Ahcar Olmos, J., & Rodríguez-Barco, D. (2020). A sensitivity analysis on the impact of regional trade agreements in bilateral trade flows. Estudios de Economía, 47(2), 193–219. https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-52862020000200193
Anderson, J. E. (1979). A theoretical foundation for the gravity equation. The American Economic Review, 69(1), 106–116.
Arvis, J.-F., & Shepherd, B. (2013). The Poisson quasi-maximum likelihood estimator: A solution to the “adding up” problem in gravity models. Applied Economics Letters, 20(6), 515–519. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2012.718052
Baier, S. L., & Bergstrand, J. H. (2007). Do free trade agreements actually increase members’ international trade? Journal of International Economics, 71(1), 72–95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2006.02.005
Balassa, B., & Noland, M. (1989). “Revealed” comparative advantage in Japan and the United States. Journal of International Economic Integration, 4(2), 8–22. https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.1989.4.2.8
Bhorat, H., Rooney, C., & Steenkamp, F. (2019). Building economic complexity in Africa (DPRU Working Paper 201906). Development Policy Research Unit.
Brada, J. C., & Mendez, J. A. (1993). Political and economic factors in regional economic integration. Kyklos, 46(2), 183–201. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6435.1993.tb02420.x
Brodzicki, T., & Uminski, S. (2018). A gravity panel data analysis of foreign trade by regions: The role of metropolises and history. Regional Studies, 52(2), 261–273. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2017.1296123
Bussière, M., Fidrmuc, J., & Schnatz, B. (2008). EU enlargement and trade integration: Lessons from a gravity model. Review of Development Economics, 12(3), 562–576. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2008.00472.x
Caldarelli, G., Cristelli, M., Gabrielli, A., Pietronero, L., Scala, A., & Tacchella, A. (2012). A network analysis of countries’ export flows: Firm grounds for the building blocks of the economy. PLoS ONE, 7(10), e47278. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0047278
Can, M., & Gozgor, G. (2017). The impact of economic complexity on carbon emissions: Evidence from France. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 24(19), 16364–16370. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-017-9219-7
Center for International Development. (2013). Economic complexity briefing. The Center for International Development at Harvard University.
Dadakas, D., Ghazvini Kor, S., & Fargher, S. (2020). Examining the trade potential of the UAE using a gravity model and a Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimator. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 29(5), 619–646. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2019.1710551
Doğan, B., Driha, O. M., Balsalobre Lorente, D., & Shahzad, U. (2021). The mitigating effects of economic complexity and renewable energy on carbon emissions in developed countries. Sustainable Development, 29(1), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2125
Ekanayake, E. M., Mukherjee, A., & Veeramacheneni, B. (2010). Trade blocks and the gravity model: A study of economic integration among Asian developing countries. Journal of Economic Integration, 25(4), 627–643. https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2010.25.4.627
Erkan, B., & Yildirimci, E. (2015). Economic complexity and export competitiveness: The case of Turkey. Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, 195, 524–533. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.06.262
Fally, T. (2015). Structural gravity and fixed effects. Journal of International Economics, 97(1), 76–85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2015.05.005
Ferraz, D., Falguera, F. P. S., Mariano, E. B., & Hartmann, D. (2021). Linking economic complexity, diversification, and industrial policy with sustainable development: A structured literature review. Sustainability, 13(3), 1265. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13031265
Frede, J., & Yetkiner, H. (2017). The regional trade dynamics of Turkey: A panel data gravity model. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 26(6), 633–648. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2017.1279205
Grant, J. H., & Lambert, D. M. (2008). Do regional trade agreements increase members’ agricultural trade? American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 90(3), 765–782. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2008.01134.x
Güneri, B., & Yalta, A. Y. (2021). Does economic complexity reduce output volatility in developing countries? Bulletin of Economic Research, 73(3), 411–431. https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.12257
Gupta, R., Gozgor, G., Kaya, H., & Demir, E. (2019). Effects of geopolitical risks on trade flows: Evidence from the gravity model. Eurasian Economic Review, 9(4), 515–530. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40822-018-0118-0
Hartmann, D., Guevara, M. R., Jara-Figueroa, C., Aristarán, M., & Hidalgo, C. A. (2017). Linking economic complexity, institutions, and income inequality. World Development, 93, 75–93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.12.020
Hausmann, R., & Hidalgo, C. A. (2011). The network structure of economic output. Journal of Economic Growth, 16(4), 309–342. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-011-9071-4
Hausmann, R., Hidalgo, C. A., Bustos, S., Coscia, M., Simoes, A., & Yildirim, M. A. (2014). The atlas of economic complexity: Mapping paths to prosperity. Mit Press. https://doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/9647.001.0001
Hausmann, R., & Klinger, B. (2006). Structural transformation and patterns of comparative advantage in the product space (KSG Working Paper No. RWP06-041. CID Working Paper No. 128). SSRN. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.939646
Hidalgo, C. A. (2021). Economic complexity theory and applications. Nature Reviews Physics, 3(2), 92–113. https://doi.org/10.1038/s42254-020-00275-1
Hidalgo, C. A., Balland, P.-A., Boschma, R., Delgado, M., Feldman, M., Frenken, K., Glaeser, E., He, C., Kogler, D. F., Morrison, A., Neffke, F., Rigby, D., Stern, S., Zheng, S., & Zhu, S. (2018). The principle of relatedness. In A. J. Morales, C. Gershenson, D. Braha, A. A. Minai, & Y. Bar-Yam (Eds.), Unifying themes in Complex Systems IX (pp. 451–457). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-96661-8_46
Hidalgo, C. A., & Hausmann, R. (2009). The building blocks of economic complexity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(26), 10570–10575. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0900943106
Hidalgo, C. A., Klinger, B., Barabási, A.-L., & Hausmann, R. (2007). The product space conditions the development of nations. Science, 317(5837), 482–487. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1144581
International Labour Organization. (2019). ILOSTAT Key Indicators of the Labour Market (KILM) (database). www.ilo.org/ilostat/
Jean, S., & Bureau, J.-C. (2015). Do regional trade agreements really boost trade? Estimates for agricultural products (CEPII Working Paper No 2015-09 – June).
Jun, B., Alshamsi, A., Gao, J., & Hidalgo, C. A. (2020). Bilateral relatedness: Knowledge diffusion and the evolution of bilateral trade. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 30(2), 247–277. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00191-019-00638-7
Khan, H., Khan, U., & Khan, M. A. (2020). Causal nexus between economic complexity and FDI: Empirical evidence from time series analysis. The Chinese Economy, 53(5), 374–394. https://doi.org/10.1080/10971475.2020.1730554
Koch, P. (2021). Economic complexity and growth: Can value-added exports better explain the link? Economics Letters, 198, 109682. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109682
Lee, C.-C., & Wang, E.-Z. (2021). Economic complexity and income inequality: Does country risk matter? Social Indicators Research, 154(1), 35–60. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-020-02543-0
Lee, H., & Park, I. (2007). In search of optimised regional trade agreements and applications to East Asia. World Economy, 30(5), 783–806. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2007.01024.x
Luqman, A. O., Abu Bakar, N. A., & Mukhriz Izraf, A. A. (2016). The gravity model approach: An application on the eco was trading bloc. South East European Journal of Economics and Business, 11(1), 67–75. https://doi.org/10.1515/jeb-2016-0005
Lüthje, T. (2001). Intraindustry trade in intermediate goods. International Advances in Economic Research, 7(4), 393–408. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02295769
Mátyás, L. (1997). Proper econometric specification of the gravity model. World Economy, 20(3), 363–368. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9701.00074
Mayer, T., & Zignago, S. (2011). Notes on CEPII’s distances measures: The GeoDist database (CEPII Working Paper No. 2011-25). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1994531
Narayan, S., & Nguyen, T. T. (2016). Does the trade gravity model depend on trading partners? Some evidence from Vietnam and her 54 trading partners. International Review of Economics & Finance, 41, 220–237. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2015.08.010
Neagu, O. (2019). The link between economic complexity and carbon emissions in the European Union countries: A model based on the environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) approach. Sustainability, 11(17), 4753. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11174753
Observatory of Economic Complexity. (2020). Observatory of Economic Complexity Database. Retrieved December 10, 2020, from https://oec.world/en/data-availability
Piermartini, R., & Yotov, Y. (2016). Estimating trade policy effects with structural gravity (CESifo Working Paper Series No. 6009). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2828613
Şeker, A., & Şimdi, H. (2019). The relationship between economic complexity index and export: The case of Turkey and Central Asian and Turkic Republics. Economy of Region, 15(3), 659–669. https://doi.org/10.17059/2019-3-3
Sepehrdoust, H., Davarikish, R., & Setarehie, M. (2019). The knowledge-based products and economic complexity in developing countries. Heliyon, 5(12), e02979. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e02979
Silva, J. S., & Tenreyro, S. (2006). The log of gravity. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 88(4), 641–658. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.88.4.641
Simoes, A. J. G., & Hidalgo, C. A. (2011). The economic complexity observatory: An analytical tool for understanding the dynamics of economic development. Workshops at the Twenty-Fifth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence.
Tinbergen, J. (1962). Shaping the world economy; suggestions for an international economic policy. Twentieth Century Fund.
UN Comtrade. (2021). UN Comtrade Database. Retrieved January 15, 2021, from https://comtradeplus.un.org/data/
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. (2019). Key Statistics and Trends in International Trade 2019. UNCTAD – Division on International Trade and Commodities.
Woetzel, J., Tonby, O., Thompson, F., Burtt, P., & Lee, G. (2014). Southeast Asia at the crossroads: Three paths to prosperity. McKinsey Global Institute.
Zainuddin, M. R. K. V., Sarmidi, T., & Khalid, N. (2020). Sustainable production, non-tariff measures, and trade performance in RCEP countries. Sustainability, 12(23), 9969. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12239969