High-speed rail and tourism expansion in China: a spatial spillover effect perspective
Abstract
Tourism exerts a great effect on the modern economy and relies largely on the flow of people facilitated by high-quality transportation infrastructure. Applying a spatial econometric method, this paper investigates the effect of high-speed rail (HSR) on tourism expansion in China from the view of the spatial spillover effect. Based on a 276 Chinese cities’ panel dataset over 2005–2019, a positive role of HSR in tourism expansion is observed. Compared with cities unconnected to the HSR network, cities accessible by HSR experienced a 22% increase in tourism revenue and a 38% rise in tourist arrivals. In addition, the connection of a city to the HSR network also exerts a great spatial spillover role in the increase of tourism revenue and arrivals in peripheral cities which are not directly connected by HSR. The research findings offer important insights on the relationship between transportation infrastructure and tourism with significant policy implications regarding tourism development.
First published online 6 November 2023
Keyword : high-speed rail, tourism, spatial spillover effect, China
How to Cite
Zhang, F., Wang, F., Yao, S., & Fu, F. (2023). High-speed rail and tourism expansion in China: a spatial spillover effect perspective. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 29(6), 1753–1775. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.19813
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
Albalate, D., Campos, J., & Jiménez, J. L. (2017). Tourism and high speed rail in Spain: Does the AVE increase local visitors? Annals of Tourism Research, 65, 71–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2017.05.004
Badulescu, D., Simut, R., Mester, I., Dzitac S., Sehleanu, M., Bac, D. P., & Badulescu, A. (2021). Do economic growth and environment quality contribute to tourism development in EU countries? A panel data analysis. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 27(6), 1509–4921. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2021.15781
Biagi, B., Brandano, M. G., & Ortega-Argiles, R. (2020). Smart specialisation and tourism: Understanding the priority choices in EU regions. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 74(8), 100883. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2020.100883
Blake, A., Sinclair, M. T., & Sugiyarto, G. (2003). Quantifying the impact of foot and mouth disease on tourism and the UK economy. Tourism Economics, 9(4), 449–465. https://doi.org/10.5367/000000003322663221
Buhalis, D., & Law, R. (2008). Progress in information technology and tourism management: 20 years on and 10 years after the internet – The state of tourism research. Tourism Management, 29(4), 609–623. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2008.01.005
Campa, J. L., López-Lambas, M. E., & Guirao, B. (2016). High speed rail effects on tourism: Spanish empirical evidence derived from China’s modelling experience. Journal of Transport Geography, 57, 44–54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2016.09.012
Castillo-Manzano, J. I., Castro-Nuño, M., López-Valpuesta, L., Pedregal-Tercero, D. J., & Garrido-Michó, J. M. (2018). High speed rail: Fast tracking tourism in the EU? Annals of Tourism Research, 71, 64–66. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2018.02.005
Chang, W. S., & Lee, Y. H. (2017). The macroeconomic contribution to foreign-exchange earnings from tourism in Taiwan. Current Issues in Tourism, 20(11), 1110–1115. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2016.1206062
Chen, Z., & Haynes, E. (2012). Tourism industry and high speed rail – is there a linkage: Evidence from China’s high speed rail development (George Mason University School of Policy, Government, & International Affairs Faculty Research Paper Series No. 2012-14) SSRN. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2130830
Chen, J. (2021). High-speed rail and energy consumption in China: The intermediary roles of industry and technology. Energy, 230, 120816. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.120816
Chen, Q., & Wang, M. (2022). Opening of high-speed rail and the consumer service industry: Evidence from China. Economic Analysis and Policy, 76, 31–45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2022.07.010
China Railway Customer Service Center (n.d.). https://www.12306.cn/index/
Florentina, T. R. (2022). The utility of blockchain technology in the electronic commerce of tourism services: An exploratory study on Romanian consumers. Sustainability, 14(2), 943. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14020943
Gao, Y. Y., Su, W., & Wang, K. N. (2019). Does high-speed rail boost tourism growth? New evidence from China. Tourism Management, 72, 220–231. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2018.12.003
Gavurova, B., Belas, J., Valaskova, K., Rigelsky, M., & Ivankova, V. (2021). Relations between infrastructure innovations and tourism spending in developed countries: A macroeconomic perspective. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 27(5), 1072–1094. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2021.15361
Guirao, B., Campa, L., & López-Lambas, E. (2016). The assessment of the HSR impacts on Spanish tourism: An approach based on multivariate panel data analysis. Transportation Research Procedia, 18, 197–204. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2016.12.027
Guizhou Provincial Bureau of Culture and Tourism. (n.d.). https://whhly.guizhou.gov.cn
Hiramatsu, T. (2018). Unequal regional iimpacts of high speed rail on the tourism industry: A simulation analysis of the effects of Kyushu Shinkansen. Transportation, 45, 677–701. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-016-9746-y
Jin, S. H., Yang, J., Wang, E. X., & Cui, C. (2020). The Influence of high-speed rail on ice-snow tourism in northeast China. Tourism Management, 78, 104070. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2019.104070
Kahn, H., Phang, S., & Toh, R. (1995). The multiplier effect: Singapore’s hospitality industry. The Cornell Hotel and Restaurant Administration Quarterly, 36(1), 64–69. https://doi.org/10.1177/001088049503600121
Khadaroo, J., & Seetanah, B. (2008). The role of transport infrastructure in international tourism development: A gravity model approach. Tourism Management, 29(5), 831–840. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2007.09.005
Kurihara, T., & Wu, L. (2016). The impact of high speed rail on tourism development: A case study of Japan. The Open Transportation Journal, 10, 35–44. https://doi.org/10.2174/1874447801610010035
Larson, M., Lundberg, C., & Lexhagen, M. (2013). Thirsting for vampire tourism: Developing pop culture destinations. Journal of Destination Marketing & Management, 2(2), 74–84. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdmm.2013.03.004
Lesage, J. P. (2008). An introduction to spatial econometrics. Revue D’Économie Industrielle, 123, 19–44. https://doi.org/10.4000/rei.3887
Li, L. S., Yang, F. X., & Cui, C. (2019). High-speed rail and tourism in China: An urban agglomeration perspective. International Journal of Tourism Research, 21, 45–60. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2240
Li, X., Huang, B., Li, R., & Zhang, Y. (2016). Exploring the impact of high seed railways on the spatial redistribution of economic activities – Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration as a case study. Journal of Transport Geography, 57, 194–206. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2016.10.011
Litvin, S. W., Goldsmith, R. E., & Pan, B. (2008). Electronic word-of-mouth in hospitality and tourism management. Tourism Management, 29(3), 459–468. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2007.05.011
Liu, X., Jiang, C., Wang, F., & Yao, S. (2021). The impact of high-speed railway on urban housing prices in China: A network accessibility perspective. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 152, 84–99. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2021.08.006
Massidda, C., & Etzo, I. (2012). The determinants of italian domestic tourism: A panel data analysis. Tourism Management, 33(3), 603–610. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2011.06.017
Masson, S., & Petiot, R. (2009). Can the high speed rail reinforce tourism attractiveness? The case of the high speed rail between Perpignan (France) and Barcelona (Spain). Technovation, 29(9), 610–617. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.technovation.2009.05.013
Ministry of Culture and Tourism of China (n.d.). https://www.mct.gov.cn/mctso/s?qt=5A%E6%99%AF%E5%8C%BA
Ming, C. C. (2013). Does tourism development promote economic growth in transition countries? A panel data analysis. Economic Modelling, 33, 226–232. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.04.024
Moore, W. R. (2010). The impact of climate change on Caribbean tourism demand. Current Issues in Tourism, 13(5), 495–505. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500903576045
Page, S., & Connell, J. (2014). Transport and tourism. In A. L. Alan, H. C. Michael, & M. W. Allan (Eds.), The Wiley Blackwell companion to tourism, (pp. 155–167). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118474648.ch12
Pagliara, F., & Mauriello, F. (2020). Modelling the impact of high speed rail on tourists with geographically weighted poisson regression. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 132, 780–790. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2019.12.025
Pagliara, F., Mauriello, F., & Garofalo, A. (2017). Exploring the interdependences between high speed rail systems and tourism: Some evidence from Italy. Transportation Research Part A: Policy & Practice, 106, 300–308. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2017.09.022
People’s Daily Online. (2018). New economic observation: The holiday economy releases consumption vitality and new business formats and new models develop strongly. http://finance.people.com.cn/n1/2020/1030/c1004-31912715.html
Seetanah, B. (2005). Transport capital as a determinant of tourism development: A time series approach. Tourismos: An International Multidisciplinary Journal of Tourism, 1(1), 55–73. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/25402/
Song, R., & Lin, V. S. (2010). Impacts of the financial and economic crisis on tourism in Asia. Journal of Travel Research, 49(1), 16–30. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287509353190
Song, X., Qiao, C., & Luo, J. (2021). Does high-speed rail opening affect the health care environment?-evidence from China. Frontiers in Public Health, 9, 708527. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.708527
Transport Bureau of the Ministry of Railways. (2016). National railway passenger train timetable. China Railway Publishing House. (in Chinese)
Wang, D., Niu, Y., & Qian, J. (2018). Evolution and optimization of China’s urban tourism spatial structure: A high-speed rail perspective. Tourism Management, 64, 218–232. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2017.08.010
Wang, X., Huang, S., Zou, T., & Yan, H. (2012). Effects of the high speed rail network on China’s regional tourism development. Tourism Management Perspectives, 1, 34–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2011.10.001
Wong, Z., Chen, A., Shen, C. R., & Wu, D. L. (2022). Fiscal policy and the development of green transportation infrastructure: the case of China’s high-speed railways. Economic Change and Restructuring, 55(4), 2179–2213. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-021-09381-1
World Travel & Tourism Council. (n.d.). https://wttc.org/Research/Economic-Impact
Yan, Y. Q., Zhang, H. Q., & Ye, B. H. (2014). Assessing the impacts of the high-speed train on tourism demand in China. Tourism Economics, 20(1), 157–169. https://doi.org/10.5367/te.2013.0260
Yao, S., Yan, X., Lei, C. K., & Wang, F. (2022). High-speed railway and tourism development in China. Tourism Economics, 28(6), 1520–1544. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816621998520
Yao, S., Zhang, F., Wang, F., & Ou, J. (2019). High-speed rail and urban economic growth in China after the world financial crisis. China and World Economy, 27(2), 44–65. https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12274
Zhang, A., Liu, L., & Liu, G. (2020). High-speed rail, tourist mobility, and firm value. Economic Modelling, 90, 208–116. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.05.004
Zhang, F., Wang, F., Ou, J., & Yao, S. (2019). Role of high-speed rail on social fixed assets investments in China. Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 17(3), 221–244. https://doi.org/10.1080/14765284.2019.1663697
Zhang, Y., & Xu, D. (2013). Service on the rise, agriculture and manufacturing in decline: The labor market effects of high-speed rail services in Spain. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 171, 103617. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2023.103617
Zhou, B., & Li, N. Q. (2018). The impact of high-speed trains on regional tourism economies: Empirical Evidence from China. Tourism Economics, 24(2), 187–203. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816617749346
Zhou, B., Wen, Z., Ian, S., & Lee, S. (2020). The spatial heterogeneity and dynamics of tourism-flow spillover effect: The role of high-speed train in China. Tourism Economics, 28(2), 1–25. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816620958309
Badulescu, D., Simut, R., Mester, I., Dzitac S., Sehleanu, M., Bac, D. P., & Badulescu, A. (2021). Do economic growth and environment quality contribute to tourism development in EU countries? A panel data analysis. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 27(6), 1509–4921. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2021.15781
Biagi, B., Brandano, M. G., & Ortega-Argiles, R. (2020). Smart specialisation and tourism: Understanding the priority choices in EU regions. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 74(8), 100883. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2020.100883
Blake, A., Sinclair, M. T., & Sugiyarto, G. (2003). Quantifying the impact of foot and mouth disease on tourism and the UK economy. Tourism Economics, 9(4), 449–465. https://doi.org/10.5367/000000003322663221
Buhalis, D., & Law, R. (2008). Progress in information technology and tourism management: 20 years on and 10 years after the internet – The state of tourism research. Tourism Management, 29(4), 609–623. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2008.01.005
Campa, J. L., López-Lambas, M. E., & Guirao, B. (2016). High speed rail effects on tourism: Spanish empirical evidence derived from China’s modelling experience. Journal of Transport Geography, 57, 44–54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2016.09.012
Castillo-Manzano, J. I., Castro-Nuño, M., López-Valpuesta, L., Pedregal-Tercero, D. J., & Garrido-Michó, J. M. (2018). High speed rail: Fast tracking tourism in the EU? Annals of Tourism Research, 71, 64–66. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2018.02.005
Chang, W. S., & Lee, Y. H. (2017). The macroeconomic contribution to foreign-exchange earnings from tourism in Taiwan. Current Issues in Tourism, 20(11), 1110–1115. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2016.1206062
Chen, Z., & Haynes, E. (2012). Tourism industry and high speed rail – is there a linkage: Evidence from China’s high speed rail development (George Mason University School of Policy, Government, & International Affairs Faculty Research Paper Series No. 2012-14) SSRN. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2130830
Chen, J. (2021). High-speed rail and energy consumption in China: The intermediary roles of industry and technology. Energy, 230, 120816. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.120816
Chen, Q., & Wang, M. (2022). Opening of high-speed rail and the consumer service industry: Evidence from China. Economic Analysis and Policy, 76, 31–45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2022.07.010
China Railway Customer Service Center (n.d.). https://www.12306.cn/index/
Florentina, T. R. (2022). The utility of blockchain technology in the electronic commerce of tourism services: An exploratory study on Romanian consumers. Sustainability, 14(2), 943. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14020943
Gao, Y. Y., Su, W., & Wang, K. N. (2019). Does high-speed rail boost tourism growth? New evidence from China. Tourism Management, 72, 220–231. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2018.12.003
Gavurova, B., Belas, J., Valaskova, K., Rigelsky, M., & Ivankova, V. (2021). Relations between infrastructure innovations and tourism spending in developed countries: A macroeconomic perspective. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 27(5), 1072–1094. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2021.15361
Guirao, B., Campa, L., & López-Lambas, E. (2016). The assessment of the HSR impacts on Spanish tourism: An approach based on multivariate panel data analysis. Transportation Research Procedia, 18, 197–204. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2016.12.027
Guizhou Provincial Bureau of Culture and Tourism. (n.d.). https://whhly.guizhou.gov.cn
Hiramatsu, T. (2018). Unequal regional iimpacts of high speed rail on the tourism industry: A simulation analysis of the effects of Kyushu Shinkansen. Transportation, 45, 677–701. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-016-9746-y
Jin, S. H., Yang, J., Wang, E. X., & Cui, C. (2020). The Influence of high-speed rail on ice-snow tourism in northeast China. Tourism Management, 78, 104070. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2019.104070
Kahn, H., Phang, S., & Toh, R. (1995). The multiplier effect: Singapore’s hospitality industry. The Cornell Hotel and Restaurant Administration Quarterly, 36(1), 64–69. https://doi.org/10.1177/001088049503600121
Khadaroo, J., & Seetanah, B. (2008). The role of transport infrastructure in international tourism development: A gravity model approach. Tourism Management, 29(5), 831–840. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2007.09.005
Kurihara, T., & Wu, L. (2016). The impact of high speed rail on tourism development: A case study of Japan. The Open Transportation Journal, 10, 35–44. https://doi.org/10.2174/1874447801610010035
Larson, M., Lundberg, C., & Lexhagen, M. (2013). Thirsting for vampire tourism: Developing pop culture destinations. Journal of Destination Marketing & Management, 2(2), 74–84. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdmm.2013.03.004
Lesage, J. P. (2008). An introduction to spatial econometrics. Revue D’Économie Industrielle, 123, 19–44. https://doi.org/10.4000/rei.3887
Li, L. S., Yang, F. X., & Cui, C. (2019). High-speed rail and tourism in China: An urban agglomeration perspective. International Journal of Tourism Research, 21, 45–60. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2240
Li, X., Huang, B., Li, R., & Zhang, Y. (2016). Exploring the impact of high seed railways on the spatial redistribution of economic activities – Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration as a case study. Journal of Transport Geography, 57, 194–206. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2016.10.011
Litvin, S. W., Goldsmith, R. E., & Pan, B. (2008). Electronic word-of-mouth in hospitality and tourism management. Tourism Management, 29(3), 459–468. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2007.05.011
Liu, X., Jiang, C., Wang, F., & Yao, S. (2021). The impact of high-speed railway on urban housing prices in China: A network accessibility perspective. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 152, 84–99. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2021.08.006
Massidda, C., & Etzo, I. (2012). The determinants of italian domestic tourism: A panel data analysis. Tourism Management, 33(3), 603–610. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2011.06.017
Masson, S., & Petiot, R. (2009). Can the high speed rail reinforce tourism attractiveness? The case of the high speed rail between Perpignan (France) and Barcelona (Spain). Technovation, 29(9), 610–617. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.technovation.2009.05.013
Ministry of Culture and Tourism of China (n.d.). https://www.mct.gov.cn/mctso/s?qt=5A%E6%99%AF%E5%8C%BA
Ming, C. C. (2013). Does tourism development promote economic growth in transition countries? A panel data analysis. Economic Modelling, 33, 226–232. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.04.024
Moore, W. R. (2010). The impact of climate change on Caribbean tourism demand. Current Issues in Tourism, 13(5), 495–505. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500903576045
Page, S., & Connell, J. (2014). Transport and tourism. In A. L. Alan, H. C. Michael, & M. W. Allan (Eds.), The Wiley Blackwell companion to tourism, (pp. 155–167). John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118474648.ch12
Pagliara, F., & Mauriello, F. (2020). Modelling the impact of high speed rail on tourists with geographically weighted poisson regression. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 132, 780–790. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2019.12.025
Pagliara, F., Mauriello, F., & Garofalo, A. (2017). Exploring the interdependences between high speed rail systems and tourism: Some evidence from Italy. Transportation Research Part A: Policy & Practice, 106, 300–308. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2017.09.022
People’s Daily Online. (2018). New economic observation: The holiday economy releases consumption vitality and new business formats and new models develop strongly. http://finance.people.com.cn/n1/2020/1030/c1004-31912715.html
Seetanah, B. (2005). Transport capital as a determinant of tourism development: A time series approach. Tourismos: An International Multidisciplinary Journal of Tourism, 1(1), 55–73. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/25402/
Song, R., & Lin, V. S. (2010). Impacts of the financial and economic crisis on tourism in Asia. Journal of Travel Research, 49(1), 16–30. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287509353190
Song, X., Qiao, C., & Luo, J. (2021). Does high-speed rail opening affect the health care environment?-evidence from China. Frontiers in Public Health, 9, 708527. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.708527
Transport Bureau of the Ministry of Railways. (2016). National railway passenger train timetable. China Railway Publishing House. (in Chinese)
Wang, D., Niu, Y., & Qian, J. (2018). Evolution and optimization of China’s urban tourism spatial structure: A high-speed rail perspective. Tourism Management, 64, 218–232. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2017.08.010
Wang, X., Huang, S., Zou, T., & Yan, H. (2012). Effects of the high speed rail network on China’s regional tourism development. Tourism Management Perspectives, 1, 34–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2011.10.001
Wong, Z., Chen, A., Shen, C. R., & Wu, D. L. (2022). Fiscal policy and the development of green transportation infrastructure: the case of China’s high-speed railways. Economic Change and Restructuring, 55(4), 2179–2213. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-021-09381-1
World Travel & Tourism Council. (n.d.). https://wttc.org/Research/Economic-Impact
Yan, Y. Q., Zhang, H. Q., & Ye, B. H. (2014). Assessing the impacts of the high-speed train on tourism demand in China. Tourism Economics, 20(1), 157–169. https://doi.org/10.5367/te.2013.0260
Yao, S., Yan, X., Lei, C. K., & Wang, F. (2022). High-speed railway and tourism development in China. Tourism Economics, 28(6), 1520–1544. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816621998520
Yao, S., Zhang, F., Wang, F., & Ou, J. (2019). High-speed rail and urban economic growth in China after the world financial crisis. China and World Economy, 27(2), 44–65. https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12274
Zhang, A., Liu, L., & Liu, G. (2020). High-speed rail, tourist mobility, and firm value. Economic Modelling, 90, 208–116. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.05.004
Zhang, F., Wang, F., Ou, J., & Yao, S. (2019). Role of high-speed rail on social fixed assets investments in China. Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 17(3), 221–244. https://doi.org/10.1080/14765284.2019.1663697
Zhang, Y., & Xu, D. (2013). Service on the rise, agriculture and manufacturing in decline: The labor market effects of high-speed rail services in Spain. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 171, 103617. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2023.103617
Zhou, B., & Li, N. Q. (2018). The impact of high-speed trains on regional tourism economies: Empirical Evidence from China. Tourism Economics, 24(2), 187–203. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816617749346
Zhou, B., Wen, Z., Ian, S., & Lee, S. (2020). The spatial heterogeneity and dynamics of tourism-flow spillover effect: The role of high-speed train in China. Tourism Economics, 28(2), 1–25. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816620958309