Quantifying the economic survive across the EU using Markov probability chains
Abstract
The multiple global crisis has made the economies of the world’s countries, including EU’s economy, vulnerable through the downgrading of the pandemic and the subsequent outbreak of geo-political conflict. These two events had the effect of decelerating the European economy and increasing the poverty level of the population, even that these developments are weaker than in rest of the world. The main objective of the present scientific approach is to identify a risk function based on Markov probability chains and to assess the possibilities of economic recovery through a package of policies structured over different time horizons. The used methods consist of meta-analysis, statistical analysis and geo-spatial and temporal modelling. The results of the study capture the integrated developments of risk-generating macroeconomic elements such as inflation, unemployment, public debt growth in a regionally segregated manner. These elements are useful for supranational decision-makers to increase the economic survival rate after multiple shocks through our proposed policy package.
First published online 14 March 2024
Keyword : crisis, shocks, Markov chains, econometric model, public policy, decision makers
How to Cite
Ionescu, R.-V., Zlati, M. L., Antohi, V.-M., Susanu, I. O., & Bărbuță-Mișu, N. (2024). Quantifying the economic survive across the EU using Markov probability chains . Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 30(3), 809–849. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2024.20760
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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Fedajev, A., Radulescu, M., Babucea, A. G., Mihajlovic, V., Yousaf, Z., & Milićević, R. (2022). Has COVID-19 pandemic crisis changed the EU convergence patterns? Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 35(1), 2112–2141. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2021.1934507
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Grosu, A.-C., Pintilescu, C., & Zugravu, B. (2022). Trends in public debt sustainability in Central and Eastern EU countries. Post-Communist Economies, 34(2), 173–195. https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2020.1867431
Gürer, E., & Weichenrieder, A. (2020). Pro-rich inflation in Europe: Implications for the measurement of inequality. German Economic Review, 21(1), 107–138. https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2018-0146
Hahn, D. H., & Kang, H. (2023). An empirical study on the short-term effects of economic sentiment on the direct and indirect investment markets in real estate. Journal of Housing and Urban Finance, 8(1), 19–31. https://doi.org/10.38100/jhuf.2023.8.1.19
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Kołodziejczak, W. (2020). Employment and gross value added in agriculture versus other sectors of the European Union economy. Sustainability, 12(14), Article 5518. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12145518
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Michis, A. A. (2021). Wavelet multidimensional scaling analysis of European economic sentiment indicators. Journal of Classification, 38(3), 443–480. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00357-020-09380-3
Onofrei, M., Bostan, I., Firtescu, B. N., Roman, A., & Rusu, V. D. (2022). Public debt and economic growth in EU countries. Economies, 10(10), Article 254. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies10100254
Paunica, M., Manole, A., Motofei, C., & Tanase, G.-L. (2021). Resilience of the European Union economies. An analysis of the granger causality at the level of the gross domestic product. Amfiteatru Economic, 23(15), 914–933. https://doi.org/10.24818/EA/2021/S15/914
Rant, V., Marinč, M., & Porenta, J. (2021). Debt and convergence: Evidence from the EU member states. Finance Research Letters, 39, Article 101617. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101617
Rutkowska, A., Szyszko, M., & Pietrzak, M. B. (2022). When all we have is not enough: A search for the optimal method of quantifying inflation expectations. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2022.2081231
Seo, B. (2022). Machine-learning-based News Sentiment Index (NSI) of Korea (Bank of Korea WP 2022-15). SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4230611
Simionescu, M., & Raišienė, A. G. (2021). A bridge between sentiment indicators: What does Google Trends tell us about COVID-19 pandemic and employment expectations in the EU new member states? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 173, Article 121170. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121170
Soava, G., Mehedintu, A., & Sterpu, M. (2022). Analysis and forecast of the use of e-commerce in enterprises of the European Union states. Sustainability, 14(14), Article 8943. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14148943
Sorić, P., Lolić, I., & Logarušić, M. (2022). Economic sentiment and aggregate activity: A tale of two European cycles. JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies, 60(2), 445–462. https://doi.org/10.1111/jcms.13249
Sulich, A., Rutkowska, M., & Popławski, Ł. (2020). Green jobs, definitional issues, and the employment of young people: An analysis of three European Union countries. Journal of Environmental Management, 262, Article 110314. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110314
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Alderotti, G., Vignoli, D., Baccini, M., & Matysiak, A. (2021). Employment instability and fertility in Europe: A meta-analysis. Demography, 58(3), 871–900. https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-9164737
Anghel, D. G., Boitan, I. A., & Marchewka-Bartkowiak, K. (2022). Growing fiscal risk in European Union resulting from government contingent liabilities in the pandemic crisis – assessment and policy recommendations. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 35(1), 2292–2312. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2021.1941178
Arestis, P., Ferreiro, J., & Gómez, C. (2020). Quality of employment and employment protection. Effects of employment protection on temporary and permanent employment. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 53, 180–188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2020.02.008
Arlt, J. (2021). The problem of annual inflation rate indicator. International Journal of Finance & Economics. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2563
Arreola Hernandez, J., Kang, S. H., Jiang, Z., & Yoon, S.-M. (2022). Spillover network among economic sentiment and economic policy uncertainty in Europe. Systems, 10(4), Article 93. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems10040093
Asandului, M., Lupu, D., Maha, L.-G., & Viorică, D. (2021). The asymmetric effects of fiscal policy on inflation and economic activity in post-communist European countries. Post-Communist Economies, 33(7), 899–919. https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2020.1867430
Ayala, L., Martín-Román, J., & Navarro, C. (2022). Unemployment shocks and material deprivation in the European Union: A synthetic control approach. Economic Systems, Article 101053. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2022.101053
Bal-Domańska, B. (2022). The impact of macroeconomic and structural factors on the unemployment of young women and men. Economic Change and Restructuring, 55(2), 1141–1172. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-021-09341-9
Balkan Green Energy News. (2021, March 30). Croatian government has realized renewables are the cheapest solution. https://balkangreenenergynews.com/croatian-government-has-realized-renewables-are-the-cheapest-solution/
Batrancea, L. (2021). Empirical evidence regarding the impact of economic growth and inflation on economic sentiment and household consumption. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 14(7), Article 336. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14070336
Beck, K. (2020). Decoupling after the Crisis: Western and Eastern business cycles in the European Union. Eastern European Economics, 58(1), 68–82. https://doi.org/10.1080/00128775.2019.1656086
Beck, K. (2021). Why business cycles diverge? Structural evidence from the European Union. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 133, Article 104263. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2021.104263
Burgoon, B., Kuhn, T., Nicoli, F., & Vandenbroucke, F. (2022). Unemployment risk-sharing in the EU: How policy design influences citizen support for European unemployment policy. European Union Politics, 23(2), 282–308. https://doi.org/10.1177/14651165221075251
Cieślik, A., & Ghodsi, M. (2021). Economic sentiment indicators and foreign direct investment: Empirical evidence from European Union countries. International Economics, 168, 56–75. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2021.07.001
Čižmešija, M., & Škrinjarić, T. (2021). Economic sentiment and business cycles: A spillover methodology approach. Economic Systems, 45(3), Article 100770. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2020.100770
Coscieme, L., Mortensen, L. F., Anderson, S., Ward, J., Donohue, I., & Sutton, P. C. (2020). Going beyond Gross Domestic Product as an indicator to bring coherence to the Sustainable Development Goals. Journal of Cleaner Production, 248, Article 119232. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119232
Di Pietro, F., Lecca, P., & Salotti, S. (2021). Regional economic resilience in the European Union: A numerical general equilibrium analysis. Spatial Economic Analysis, 16(3), 287–312. https://doi.org/10.1080/17421772.2020.1846768
Eurostat. (2023a). Employment and activity by sex and age – quarterly data. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/lfsi_emp_q/default/table?lang=en
Eurostat. (2023b). GDP and main components (output, expenditure and income). https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/product/page/NAMQ_10_GDP__custom_3605558
Eurostat. (2023c). HICP – monthly data (annual rate of change). https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/product/page/PRC_HICP_MANR__custom_217634
Eurostat. (2023d). Production in industry – monthly data. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/product/page/STS_INPR_M__custom_3378105
Eurostat. (2023e). Quarterly government debt. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/product/page/GOV_10Q_GGDEBT__custom_1208817
Eurostat. (2023f). Sentiment indicators – monthly data. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/product/page/EI_BSSI_M_R2__custom_217532
Eurostat. (2023g). Unemployment by sex and age – monthly data. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/product/page/UNE_RT_M__custom_3605577
Fana, M., Torrejón Pérez, S., & Fernández-Macías, E. (2020). Employment impact of Covid-19 crisis: From short term effects to long terms prospects. Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, 47(3), 391–410. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40812-020-00168-5
Fedajev, A., Radulescu, M., Babucea, A. G., Mihajlovic, V., Yousaf, Z., & Milićević, R. (2022). Has COVID-19 pandemic crisis changed the EU convergence patterns? Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 35(1), 2112–2141. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2021.1934507
Friesenbichler, K. S., Kuegler, A., & Reinstaller, A. (2021). Does value chain integration dampen producer price developments? Evidence from the European Union. The World Economy, 44(1), 89–106. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12993
Gootjes, B., & de Haan, J. (2022). Procyclicality of fiscal policy in European Union countries. Journal of International Money and Finance, 120, Article 102276. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102276
Grosu, A.-C., Pintilescu, C., & Zugravu, B. (2022). Trends in public debt sustainability in Central and Eastern EU countries. Post-Communist Economies, 34(2), 173–195. https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2020.1867431
Gürer, E., & Weichenrieder, A. (2020). Pro-rich inflation in Europe: Implications for the measurement of inequality. German Economic Review, 21(1), 107–138. https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2018-0146
Hahn, D. H., & Kang, H. (2023). An empirical study on the short-term effects of economic sentiment on the direct and indirect investment markets in real estate. Journal of Housing and Urban Finance, 8(1), 19–31. https://doi.org/10.38100/jhuf.2023.8.1.19
Hartley, K., van Santen, R., & Kirchherr, J. (2020). Policies for transitioning towards a circular economy: Expectations from the European Union (EU). Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 155, Article 104634. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2019.104634
Hegerty, S. W. (2020). Structural breaks and regional inflation convergence for five new Euro members. Economic Change and Restructuring, 53(2), 219–239. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-018-9241-x
International Monetary Fund. (2022). World Economic Outlook: Countering the cost-of-living crisis. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2022/10/11/world-economic-outlook-october-2022
Jacobs, J., Ogawa, K., Sterken, E., & Tokutsu, I. (2020). Public debt, economic growth and the real interest rate: A panel VAR approach to EU and OECD countries. Applied Economics, 52(12), 1377–1394. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2019.1673301
Južnik Rotar, L., Kontošić Pamić, R., & Bojnec, Š. (2022). Innovation and wages constrained with budgetary deficit and unemployment in the European Union countries. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 35(1), 1561–1580. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2021.1985564
Kołodziejczak, W. (2020). Employment and gross value added in agriculture versus other sectors of the European Union economy. Sustainability, 12(14), Article 5518. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12145518
Lukac, Z., & Cizmesija, M. (2021). (Re)Constructing the European Economic sentiment indicator: An optimization approach. Social Indicators Research, 155(3), 939–958. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-020-02602-6
Mattera, R., Misuraca, M., Spano, M., & Scepi, G. (2023). Mixed frequency composite indicators for measuring public sentiment in the EU. Quality & Quantity, 57(3), 2357–2382. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-022-01468-9
Michis, A. A. (2021). Wavelet multidimensional scaling analysis of European economic sentiment indicators. Journal of Classification, 38(3), 443–480. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00357-020-09380-3
Onofrei, M., Bostan, I., Firtescu, B. N., Roman, A., & Rusu, V. D. (2022). Public debt and economic growth in EU countries. Economies, 10(10), Article 254. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies10100254
Paunica, M., Manole, A., Motofei, C., & Tanase, G.-L. (2021). Resilience of the European Union economies. An analysis of the granger causality at the level of the gross domestic product. Amfiteatru Economic, 23(15), 914–933. https://doi.org/10.24818/EA/2021/S15/914
Rant, V., Marinč, M., & Porenta, J. (2021). Debt and convergence: Evidence from the EU member states. Finance Research Letters, 39, Article 101617. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101617
Rutkowska, A., Szyszko, M., & Pietrzak, M. B. (2022). When all we have is not enough: A search for the optimal method of quantifying inflation expectations. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2022.2081231
Seo, B. (2022). Machine-learning-based News Sentiment Index (NSI) of Korea (Bank of Korea WP 2022-15). SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4230611
Simionescu, M., & Raišienė, A. G. (2021). A bridge between sentiment indicators: What does Google Trends tell us about COVID-19 pandemic and employment expectations in the EU new member states? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 173, Article 121170. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121170
Soava, G., Mehedintu, A., & Sterpu, M. (2022). Analysis and forecast of the use of e-commerce in enterprises of the European Union states. Sustainability, 14(14), Article 8943. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14148943
Sorić, P., Lolić, I., & Logarušić, M. (2022). Economic sentiment and aggregate activity: A tale of two European cycles. JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies, 60(2), 445–462. https://doi.org/10.1111/jcms.13249
Sulich, A., Rutkowska, M., & Popławski, Ł. (2020). Green jobs, definitional issues, and the employment of young people: An analysis of three European Union countries. Journal of Environmental Management, 262, Article 110314. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110314
Tibor, S. T., & Grande, C. A. (2022). Industrial production of activated carbon using circular bioeconomy principles: Case study from a Romanian company. Cleaner Engineering and Technology, 7, Article 100443. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.clet.2022.100443
Trading Economics. (2023). Credit rating. Europe. https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/rating?continent=europe
Ulceluse, M., & Kahanec, M. (2022). Eastward enlargements of the European Union, transitional arrangements and self-employment. Journal of Population Economics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-022-00904-2
Vanlaer, W., Picarelli, M., & Marneffe, W. (2021). Debt and private investment: Does the EU suffer from a debt overhang? Open Economies Review, 32(4), 789–820. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-021-09621-x