On the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the household’s consumption and labor supply: theory and application
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic and the corresponding regulation measures carried out to curb it have had a strong negative impact on the whole economy, and household consumption has been seriously affected. A large part of the drop in consumption is due to the reduction of household income, which is mainly caused by the labor supply loss during the pandemic. To present the mechanism of the impact of the pandemic on consumption, this study constructs a novel theoretical model. Two hypotheses about the pandemic’s impact on labor supply are proposed and empirically tested. Subsequently, a comparative static analysis is carried out to determine the numerical mechanism of the pandemic’s impact on household consumption. In addition, the model is also empirically tested and further modified for application, enabling the studies of both a realistic simulation and a policy simulation. This study finds that the labor supply of households has been affected during the pandemic, and there is a mediating effect channel through the regulation stringency. The epidemic severity and regulation policies have a negative impact on household consumption, in turn, will raise the saving rate of households. The income effect of the two on consumption accounts for 32% and 44% of the total effect respectively.
First published online 05 September 2024
Keyword : household, consumption, labor supply, COVID-19, theory and application
How to Cite
Liu, L., & Zhang, Y. (2024). On the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the household’s consumption and labor supply: theory and application. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 1-30. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2024.21958
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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Hall, R. E., Jones, C. I., & Klenow, P. J. (2020). Trading off consumption and COVID-19 deaths (Working Paper No. 27340). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27340
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Immordino, G., Jappelli, T., Oliviero, T., & Zazzaro, A. (2022). Fear of COVID‐19 contagion and consumption: Evidence from a survey of Italian households. Health Economics, 31(3), 496–507. https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.4464
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Keynes, J. M. (1937). The general theory of employment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 51(2), 209–223. https://doi.org/10.2307/1882087
Kim, S., Koh, K., & Zhang, X. (2020). Short-term impact of COVID-19 on consumption and labor market outcomes: Evidence from Singapore (IZA Discussion Paper No. 13354). Institute for the Study of Labor. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3627056
Kuypers, S., Marx, I., Nolan, B., & Palomino, J. C. (2022). Lockdown, earnings losses and household asset buffers in Europe. Review of Income and Wealth, 68(2), 428–470. https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12594
Laato, S., Islam, A. N., Farooq, A., & Dhir, A. (2020). Unusual purchasing behavior during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic: The stimulus-organism-response approach. Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, 57, Article 102224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jretconser.2020.102224
Lee, S., Schmidt-Klau, D., & Verick, S. (2020). The labour market impacts of the COVID-19: A global perspective. The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, 63, 11–15. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41027-020-00249-y
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Liu, L., Huang, J., & Li, H. (2022). Estimating the real shock to the economy from COVID-19: The example of electricity use in China. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 28(5), 1221–1241. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2022.17027
Liu, L., & Wang, Q. (2022). Is the effect of human activity on air pollution linear or nonlinear? Evidence from Wuhan, China, under the COVID-19 lockdown. Cities, 127, Article 103752. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2022.103752
Liu, L., & Fu, Y. (2024). Time and distance matter: Study on the public sentiment during the COVID-19 pandemic in a mega-city. Cities, 145, Article 104689. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2023.104689
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Our World in Data. (n.d.). Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccinations. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations/
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Rojas, F. L., Jiang, X., Montenovo, L., Simon, K. I., Weinberg, B. A., & Wing, C. (2020). Is the cure worse than the problem itself? Immediate labor market effects of COVID-19 case rates and school closures in the US (Working Paper No. 27127). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27127
Rose, N., Rowe, F., & Dolega, L. (2023). How consumer behaviours changed in response to COVID-19 lockdown stringency measures: A case study of Walmart. Applied Geography, 154, Article 102948. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2023.102948
Seidman, L. S. (1990). Is a consumption tax equivalent to a wage tax? Public Finance Quarterly, 18(1), 65–76. https://doi.org/10.1177/109114219001800104
Sheth, J. (2020). Impact of Covid-19 on consumer behavior: Will the old habits return or die? Journal of Business Research, 117, 280–283. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2020.05.059
Tian, T., Tan, J., Luo, W., Jiang, Y., Chen, M., Yang, S., Wen, C., Pan, W., & Wang, X. (2021). The effects of stringent and mild interventions for coronavirus pandemic. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 116(534), 481–491. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2021.1897015
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Wang, Q., & Liu, L. (2022). Pandemic or panic? A firm-level study on the psychological and industrial impacts of COVID-19 on the Chinese stock market. Financial Innovation, 8, Article 36. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-022-00335-8
Wang, X., Shi, W., & Yuen, K. F. (2022). A synthesised review of pandemic-driven consumer behaviours and applied theories: Towards a unified framework. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 77, Article 103104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103104
Weber, A. N. (2021). Responding to supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic: A black swan event for omnichannel retailers. Journal of Transport and Supply Chain Management, 15, Article a628. https://doi.org/10.4102/jtscm.v15i0.628
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Ahmad, W., Kutan, A. M., & Gupta, S. (2021). Black swan events and COVID-19 outbreak: Sector level evidence from the US, UK, and European stock markets. International Review of Economics & Finance, 75, 546–557. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2021.04.007
Almeida, V., Barrios, S., Christl, M., De Poli, S., Tumino, A., & Van der Wielen, W. (2021). The impact of COVID-19 on households income in the EU. The Journal of Economic Inequality, 19(3), 413–431. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10888-021-09485-8
Battistini, N., Di Nino, V., & Gareis, J. (2023). The consumption impulse from pandemic savings ‒ does the composition matter? European Central Bank Economic Biulletin, (4). https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/economic-bulletin/focus/2023/html/ecb.ebbox202304_01~d76c76c27c.en.html
Borjas, G. J., & Cassidy, H. (2020). The adverse effect of the COVID-19 labor market shock on immigrant employment (Working Paper No. 27243). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27243
Brodeur, A., Gray, D., Islam, A., & Bhuiyan, S. (2021). A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19. Journal of Economic Surveys, 35(4), 1007–1044. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12423
Bundervoet, T., Dávalos, M. E., & Garcia, N. (2022). The short-term impacts of COVID-19 on households in developing countries: An overview based on a harmonized dataset of high-frequency surveys. World Development, 153, Article 105844. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.105844
Cargill, T. F., & Parker, E. (2004). Price deflation and consumption: Central Bank policy and Japan’s economic and financial stagnation. Journal of Asian Economics, 15(3), 493–506. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2004.04.001
CEIC Data. (n.d.). https://www.ceicdata.com.cn/
Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Weber, M. (2020a). The cost of the COVID-19 crisis: Lockdowns, macroeconomic expectations, and consumer spending (Working Paper No. 27141). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27141
Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Weber, M. (2020b). Labor markets during the COVID-19 crisis: A preliminary view (Working Paper No. 27017). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27017
Drechsel-Grau, M., & Schmid, K. D. (2013). Habits and envy: What drives the consumption behavior of U.S. households? Evidence from the PSID, 1999–2009 (Working Paper No. 123). Macroeconomic Policy Institute. https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/105988
Eger, L., Komárková, L., Egerová, D., & Mičík, M. (2021). The effect of COVID-19 on consumer shopping behaviour: Generational cohort perspective. Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, 61, Article 102542. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jretconser.2021.102542
Fan, Y., Li, X., Zhang, L., Wan, S., Zhang, L., & Zhou, F. (2022). SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant: Recent progress and future perspectives. Signal Transduction and Targeted Therapy, 7(1), Article 141. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41392-022-00997-x
Fong, M. W., Gao, H., Wong, J. Y., Xiao, J., Shiu, E. Y., Ryu, S., & Cowling, B. J. (2020). Nonpharmaceutical measures for pandemic influenza in nonhealthcare settings – Social distancing measures. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 26(5), 976–984. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2605.190995
Forsythe, E., Kahn, L. B., Lange, F., & Wiczer, D. (2020). Labor demand in the time of COVID-19: Evidence from vacancy postings and UI claims. Journal of Public Economics, 189, Article 104238. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104238
Goolsbee, A., & Syverson, C. (2021). Fear, lockdown, and diversion: Comparing drivers of pandemic economic decline 2020. Journal of Public Economics, 193, Article 104311. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104311
Guglielminetti, E., & Rondinelli, C. (2021). Consumption and saving patterns in Italy during COVID-19. (Bank of Italy Occasional Paper, No. 620). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3891608
Guo, J. T., & Zhang, Y. (2023). Tax policy and aggregate stability in an overlapping generations model. Pacific Economic Review, 29(2), 187–213. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12438
Hale, T., Petherick, A., Anania, J., de Mello, B. A., Angrist, N., Barnes, R., Boby, T., Cameron-Blake, E., Cavalieri, A., Di Folco, M., Edwards, B., Ellen, L., Elms, J., Furst, R., Green, K., Goldszmidt, R., Hallas, L., Kira, B., Luciano, M…, Ren, L. (2023). Variation in government responses to COVID-19. (Blavatnik School of Government Working Paper No. 32). University of Oxford. https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2023-06/BSG-WP-2020-032-v15.pdf
Hall, R. E., Jones, C. I., & Klenow, P. J. (2020). Trading off consumption and COVID-19 deaths (Working Paper No. 27340). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27340
Hanspal, T., Weber, A., & Wohlfart, J. (2020). Income and wealth shocks and expectations during the COVID-19 pandemic (Working Paper No. 8244). Center for Economic and ifo Institute. https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/216640
Hysa, E., Imeraj, E., Feruni, N., Panait, M., & Vasile, V. (2022). COVID-19 – A black swan for foreign direct investment: Evidence from European countries. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 15(4), Article 156. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm15040156
Immordino, G., Jappelli, T., Oliviero, T., & Zazzaro, A. (2022). Fear of COVID‐19 contagion and consumption: Evidence from a survey of Italian households. Health Economics, 31(3), 496–507. https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.4464
International Labour Organization. (2020). ILO monitor: COVID-19 and the world of work (5th ed.). https://www.ilo.org/global/topics/coronavirus/impacts-and-responses/WCMS_749399/lang--en/index.htm
Keynes, J. M. (1936). The general theory of employment, interest, and money. Harcourt Brace & World.
Keynes, J. M. (1937). The general theory of employment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 51(2), 209–223. https://doi.org/10.2307/1882087
Kim, S., Koh, K., & Zhang, X. (2020). Short-term impact of COVID-19 on consumption and labor market outcomes: Evidence from Singapore (IZA Discussion Paper No. 13354). Institute for the Study of Labor. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3627056
Kuypers, S., Marx, I., Nolan, B., & Palomino, J. C. (2022). Lockdown, earnings losses and household asset buffers in Europe. Review of Income and Wealth, 68(2), 428–470. https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12594
Laato, S., Islam, A. N., Farooq, A., & Dhir, A. (2020). Unusual purchasing behavior during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic: The stimulus-organism-response approach. Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, 57, Article 102224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jretconser.2020.102224
Lee, S., Schmidt-Klau, D., & Verick, S. (2020). The labour market impacts of the COVID-19: A global perspective. The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, 63, 11–15. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41027-020-00249-y
Liu, L. (2020). Emerging study on the transmission of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) from urban perspective: Evidence from China. Cities, 103, Article 102759. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2020.102759
Liu, L., Huang, J., & Li, H. (2022). Estimating the real shock to the economy from COVID-19: The example of electricity use in China. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 28(5), 1221–1241. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2022.17027
Liu, L., & Wang, Q. (2022). Is the effect of human activity on air pollution linear or nonlinear? Evidence from Wuhan, China, under the COVID-19 lockdown. Cities, 127, Article 103752. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2022.103752
Liu, L., & Fu, Y. (2024). Time and distance matter: Study on the public sentiment during the COVID-19 pandemic in a mega-city. Cities, 145, Article 104689. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2023.104689
National Bureau of Statistics of China. (2020). Total retail sales of consumer goods went by 3.3 percent in September 2020 [Data]. https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202010/t20201020_1794975.html
Our World in Data. (n.d.). Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccinations. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations/
Pinkovetskaia, I. (2022). Impact of Covid-19 pandemic on household income: Results of a survey of the economically active population. Studia Universitatis “Vasile Goldis”, Arad – Economics Series, 32(1), 43–57. https://doi.org/10.2478/sues-2022-0003
Rajasekharan, J., & Koivunen, V. (2014, May 4–9). Intertemporal trading economy model for smart grid household energy consumption. In Proceedings of 2014 IEEE International Conference on Acoustics, Speech and Signal Processing (ICASSP) (pp. 7774–7778). Florence, Italy. IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICASSP.2014.6855113
Rojas, F. L., Jiang, X., Montenovo, L., Simon, K. I., Weinberg, B. A., & Wing, C. (2020). Is the cure worse than the problem itself? Immediate labor market effects of COVID-19 case rates and school closures in the US (Working Paper No. 27127). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27127
Rose, N., Rowe, F., & Dolega, L. (2023). How consumer behaviours changed in response to COVID-19 lockdown stringency measures: A case study of Walmart. Applied Geography, 154, Article 102948. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2023.102948
Seidman, L. S. (1990). Is a consumption tax equivalent to a wage tax? Public Finance Quarterly, 18(1), 65–76. https://doi.org/10.1177/109114219001800104
Sheth, J. (2020). Impact of Covid-19 on consumer behavior: Will the old habits return or die? Journal of Business Research, 117, 280–283. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2020.05.059
Tian, T., Tan, J., Luo, W., Jiang, Y., Chen, M., Yang, S., Wen, C., Pan, W., & Wang, X. (2021). The effects of stringent and mild interventions for coronavirus pandemic. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 116(534), 481–491. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2021.1897015
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2022). Consumer spending in the second quarter of 2020 [Data]. https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2022/changes-to-consumer-expenditures-during-the-covid-19-pandemic.htm
Wang, Q., & Liu, L. (2022). Pandemic or panic? A firm-level study on the psychological and industrial impacts of COVID-19 on the Chinese stock market. Financial Innovation, 8, Article 36. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-022-00335-8
Wang, X., Shi, W., & Yuen, K. F. (2022). A synthesised review of pandemic-driven consumer behaviours and applied theories: Towards a unified framework. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 77, Article 103104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103104
Weber, A. N. (2021). Responding to supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic: A black swan event for omnichannel retailers. Journal of Transport and Supply Chain Management, 15, Article a628. https://doi.org/10.4102/jtscm.v15i0.628
World Bank. (2022a). World development report 2022: Finance for an equitable recovery. International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/408661644986413472/pdf/World-Development-Report-2022-Finance-for-an-Equitable-Recovery.pdf
World Bank. (2022b). As global growth slows, developing economies face risk of ‘hard landing’. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2022/01/11/developing-economies-face-risk-of-hard-landing-as-global-growth-slows
World Bank. (2023). Global economic prospect: Weakening growth, financial risks. https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects
Zhao, Y., Jiang, Y., Zhang, W., & Zhu, Y. (2023). Relationship between risk perception, emotion, and coping behavior during public health emergencies: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Systems, 11(4), Article 181. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems11040181