Finding a promising venture capital project with TODIM under probabilistic hesitant fuzzy circumstance
Abstract
Considering the risk aversion for gains and the risk seeking for losses of venture capitalists, the TODIM has been chosen as the decision-making method. Moreover, group decision is an available way to avoid the limited ability and knowledge etc. of venture capitalists. Simultaneously, venture capitalists may be hesitant among several assessed values with different probabilities to express their real perception because of the uncertain decision-making environment. However, the probabilistic hesitant fuzzy information can solve such problems effectively. Therefore, the TODIM has been extended to probabilistic hesitant fuzzy circumstance for the sake of settling the decision-making problem of venture capitalists in this paper. Moreover, due to the uncertain investment environment, the criteria weights are considered as probabilistic hesitant fuzzy information as well. Then, a case study has been used to verify the feasibility and validity of the proposed TODIM. Also, the TODIM with hesitant fuzzy information has been carried out to analysis the same case. From the comparative analysis, the superiority of the proposed TODIM in this paper has already appeared.
Keyword : TODIM, probabilistic hesitant fuzzy information, venture capitalist, decision-making, venture capital
How to Cite
Zhang, W., Du, J., & Tian, X. (2018). Finding a promising venture capital project with TODIM under probabilistic hesitant fuzzy circumstance. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 24(5), 2026-2044. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2018.5494
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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Fan, Z. P., Zhang, X., Chen, F. D., & Liu, Y. (2013). Extended TODIM method for hybrid multiple attribute decision making problems. Knowledge-Based Systems, 42(2), 40-48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2012.12.014
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Gomes, L. F. A. M., & Lima, M. M. P. P. (1992). From modelling individual preferences to multicriteria ranking of discrete alternatives: a look at Prospect Theory and the additive difference model. Foundations of Computing and Decision Sciences, 17(3), 171-184.
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Hisrich, R. D., & Jankowicz, A. D. (1990). Intuition in venture capital decisions: an exploratory study using a new technique. Journal of Business Venturing, 5(1), 49-62. https://doi.org/10.1016/0883-9026(90)90026-P
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: analysis of decision under risk. Econometria, 47, 263-291. https://doi.org/10.1142/9789814417358_0006
Kazancoglu, Y., & Burmaoglu, S. (2013). ERP software selection with MCDM: application of TODIM method. International Journal of Business Information Systems, 13(4), 435-452. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJBIS.2013.055300
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Llamazares, B. (2018). An analysis of the generalized TODIM method. European Journal of Operational Research, 269, 1041-1049. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2018.02.054
Macmillan, I. C., Zemann, L., & Subbanarasimha, P. N. (1987). Criteria distinguishing successful from unsuccessful ventures in the venture screening process. Journal of Business Venturing, 2(2), 123-137. https://doi.org/10.1016/0883-9026(87)90003-6
Mason, C., & Stark, M. (2004). What do investors look for in a business plan? A comparison of the investment criteria of bankers, venture capitalists, and business angles. International Small Business Journal, 22(3), 227-248. https://doi.org/10.1177/0266242604042377
Netease. (2017). Netease open class. Retrieved from http://open.163.com/cuvocw
Peng, J. J., Wang, J. Q., Zhou, H., & Chen, X. H. (2015). A multi-criteria decision-making approach based on TODIM and Choquet integral within a multiset hesitant fuzzy environment. Applied Mathematics and Information Sciences, 9(4), 2087-2097.
Petty, J. S., & Gruber, M. (2011). “In pursuit of the real deal”: a longitudinal study of VC decision making. Journal of Business Venturing, 26(2), 172-188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusvent.2009.07.002
Puxin Education Technology Group Co. Ltd. (2017). Puxin education. Retrieved from http://www.pxjy.com
Qinxue (Beijing) Network Education Technology Co. Ltd. (2017). Qinxue education. Retrieved from http://www.qinxue100.com
Riquelme, H., & Rickards, T. (1992). Hybrid conjoint analysis: an estimation probe in new venture decisions. Journal of Business Venturing, 7(6), 505-518. https://doi.org/10.1016/0883-9026(92)90022-J
Shanghai Yimi Education Technology Co., Ltd. (2017). Yimi Guidance. Retrieved from http://www.1mifudao.com
Schumpeter, J. A. (1934). The theory of economic development: an inquiry into profits, capital, credit, interest, and the business cycle. Social Science Electronic Publishing, 25(1), 90-91.
Tan, C. Q., Jiang, Z. Z., & Chen, X. H. (2015). An extended TODIM method for hesitant fuzzy interactive multicriteria decision making based on generalized Choquet integral. Journal of Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems, 29(1), 293-305. https://doi.org/10.3233/IFS-151595
Torra, V. (2010). Hesitant fuzzy sets. International Journal of Intelligent Systems, 25(6), 529-539. https://doi.org/10.1002/int.20418
Tyebjee, T. T., & Bruno, A. V. (1984). Venture capital: investor and investee perspectives. Technovation, 2(3), 185-208. https://doi.org/10.1016/0166-4972(84)90003-8
Tencent. (2017). Classroom of Tencent. Retrieved from https://ke.qq.com
Wei, C. P., Ren, Z. L., & Rodríguez, R. M. (2015). A hesitant fuzzy linguistic TODIM method based on a score function. International Journal of Computational Intelligence Systems, 8(4), 701-712. https://doi.org/10.1080/18756891.2015.1046329
Widyanto, H. A., & Dalimunthe, Z. (2015). Evaluation criteria of venture capital firms investing on Indonesians’ SME. New York: Social Science Electronic Publishing.
Xia, M. M., Xu, Z. S., & Chen, N. (2013). Some hesitant fuzzy aggregation operators with their application in group decision making. Group Decision and Negotiation, 22(2), 259-279. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10726-011-9261-7
Xu, Z. S., & Xia, M. M. (2011). Distance and similarity measures for hesitant fuzzy sets. Information Sciences, 181(11), 2128-2138. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2011.01.028
Yazdipour, R. (2011). Advances in entrepreneurial finance. New York: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-7527-0
Yu, D. J., Zhang, W. Y., & Xu, Y. J. (2013). Group decision making under hesitant fuzzy environment with application to personnel evaluation. Knowledge-Based Systems, 52(6), 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2013.04.010
Yu, D. J., & Li, D. F. (2014). Dual hesitant fuzzy multi-criteria decision making and its application to teaching quality assessment. Journal of Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems, 27(4), 1679-1688.
Zacharakis, A. L., Mcmullen, J. S., & Shepherd, D. A. (2007). Venture capitalists’ decision making across three countries: an institutional theory perspective. Journal of International Business Studies, 38(5), 691-708. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8400291
Zhang, X. L., & Xu, Z. S. (2014). The TODIM analysis approach based on novel measured functions under hesitant fuzzy environment. Knowledge-Based Systems, 61(2), 48-58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2014.02.006
Zhang, X. L., & Xu, Z. S. (2017). Hesitant fuzzy methods for multiple criteria decision analysis (pp. 31-69). Switzerland: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-42001-1
Zhu, B., Xu, Z. S., & Xia, M. M. (2012). Dual hesitant fuzzy sets. Journal of Applied Mathematics, 2012, 2607-2645. https://doi.org/10.1155/2012/879629
Zhu, B., & Xu, Z. S. (2018). Probability-hesitant fuzzy sets and the presentation of preference relations. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 23(3), 1029-1040. https://doi.org/10.3846/20294913.2016.1266529
Castilla, E. J. (2003). Networks of venture capital firms in Silicon Valley. International Journal of Technology Management, 25(25), 113-135. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJTM.2003.003093
Ding, J., Xu, Z. S., & Zhao, N. (2017). An interactive approach to probabilistic hesitant fuzzy multiattribute group decision making with incomplete weight information. Journal of Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems, 32(3), 2523-2536. https://doi.org/10.3233/JIFS-16503
Dutta, S., & Folta, T. B. (2016). A comparison of the effect of angels and venture capitalists on innovation and value creation. Journal of Business Venturing, 31(1), 39-54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusvent.2015.08.003
Fan, Z. P., Zhang, X., Chen, F. D., & Liu, Y. (2013). Extended TODIM method for hybrid multiple attribute decision making problems. Knowledge-Based Systems, 42(2), 40-48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2012.12.014
Franke, N., Gruber, M., Harhoff, D., & Henkel, J. (2008). Venture capitalists’ evaluations of start-up teams: trade-offs, knock-out criteria, and the impact of VC experience. Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, 32(3), 459-483. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6520.2008.00236.x
Gamelook. (2017). CB Insights: startups failure reasons Top 20. Retrieved from http://www.gamelook.com.cn/2014/10/185579
Gomes, L. F. A. M., & González, X. I. (2012). Behavioral multi-criteria decision analysis: further elaborations on the TODIM method. Foundations of Computing and Decision Sciences, 37(1), 3-8. https://doi.org/10.2478/v10209-011-0001-1
Gomes, L. F. A. M., & Lima, M. M. P. P. (1991). TODIM: basic and application to multicriteria ranking of projects with environmental impacts. Foundations of Computing and decision Sciences, 16(3-4), 113-127.
Gomes, L. F. A. M., & Lima, M. M. P. P. (1992). From modelling individual preferences to multicriteria ranking of discrete alternatives: a look at Prospect Theory and the additive difference model. Foundations of Computing and Decision Sciences, 17(3), 171-184.
Gomes, L. F. A. M., Machado, M. A. S., & Rangel, L. A. D. (2013). Behavioral multi-criteria decision analysis: the TODIM method with criteria interactions. Annals of Operations Research, 211(1), 531-548. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-013-1454-9
Gomes, L. F. A. M., & Rangel, L. A. D. (2009). An application of the TODIM method to the multicriteria rental evaluation of residential properties. European Journal of Operational Research, 193(1), 204-211. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2007.10.046
Gomes, L. F. A. M., Rangel, L. A. D., & Maranhão, F. J. C. (2009). Multicriteria analysis of natural gas destination in Brazil: an application of the TODIM method. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 50(1), 92-100. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mcm.2009.02.013
Hisrich, R. D., & Jankowicz, A. D. (1990). Intuition in venture capital decisions: an exploratory study using a new technique. Journal of Business Venturing, 5(1), 49-62. https://doi.org/10.1016/0883-9026(90)90026-P
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: analysis of decision under risk. Econometria, 47, 263-291. https://doi.org/10.1142/9789814417358_0006
Kazancoglu, Y., & Burmaoglu, S. (2013). ERP software selection with MCDM: application of TODIM method. International Journal of Business Information Systems, 13(4), 435-452. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJBIS.2013.055300
Krohling, R. A., & Pacheco, A. G. C. (2014). Interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy TODIM. Procedia Computer Science, 31, 236-244. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2014.05.265
Krohling, R. A., Pacheco, A. G. C., & Siviero, A. L. T. (2013). IF-TODIM: an intuitionistic fuzzy TODIM to multi-criteria decision making. Knowledge-Based Systems, 53(9), 142-146. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2013.08.028
Liao, H. C., Xu, Z. S., & Xia, M. M. (2014). Multiplicative consistency of hesitant fuzzy preference relation and its application in group decision making. International Journal of Information Technology and Decision Making, 13(01), 47-76. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219622014500035
Llamazares, B. (2018). An analysis of the generalized TODIM method. European Journal of Operational Research, 269, 1041-1049. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2018.02.054
Macmillan, I. C., Zemann, L., & Subbanarasimha, P. N. (1987). Criteria distinguishing successful from unsuccessful ventures in the venture screening process. Journal of Business Venturing, 2(2), 123-137. https://doi.org/10.1016/0883-9026(87)90003-6
Mason, C., & Stark, M. (2004). What do investors look for in a business plan? A comparison of the investment criteria of bankers, venture capitalists, and business angles. International Small Business Journal, 22(3), 227-248. https://doi.org/10.1177/0266242604042377
Netease. (2017). Netease open class. Retrieved from http://open.163.com/cuvocw
Peng, J. J., Wang, J. Q., Zhou, H., & Chen, X. H. (2015). A multi-criteria decision-making approach based on TODIM and Choquet integral within a multiset hesitant fuzzy environment. Applied Mathematics and Information Sciences, 9(4), 2087-2097.
Petty, J. S., & Gruber, M. (2011). “In pursuit of the real deal”: a longitudinal study of VC decision making. Journal of Business Venturing, 26(2), 172-188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusvent.2009.07.002
Puxin Education Technology Group Co. Ltd. (2017). Puxin education. Retrieved from http://www.pxjy.com
Qinxue (Beijing) Network Education Technology Co. Ltd. (2017). Qinxue education. Retrieved from http://www.qinxue100.com
Riquelme, H., & Rickards, T. (1992). Hybrid conjoint analysis: an estimation probe in new venture decisions. Journal of Business Venturing, 7(6), 505-518. https://doi.org/10.1016/0883-9026(92)90022-J
Shanghai Yimi Education Technology Co., Ltd. (2017). Yimi Guidance. Retrieved from http://www.1mifudao.com
Schumpeter, J. A. (1934). The theory of economic development: an inquiry into profits, capital, credit, interest, and the business cycle. Social Science Electronic Publishing, 25(1), 90-91.
Tan, C. Q., Jiang, Z. Z., & Chen, X. H. (2015). An extended TODIM method for hesitant fuzzy interactive multicriteria decision making based on generalized Choquet integral. Journal of Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems, 29(1), 293-305. https://doi.org/10.3233/IFS-151595
Torra, V. (2010). Hesitant fuzzy sets. International Journal of Intelligent Systems, 25(6), 529-539. https://doi.org/10.1002/int.20418
Tyebjee, T. T., & Bruno, A. V. (1984). Venture capital: investor and investee perspectives. Technovation, 2(3), 185-208. https://doi.org/10.1016/0166-4972(84)90003-8
Tencent. (2017). Classroom of Tencent. Retrieved from https://ke.qq.com
Wei, C. P., Ren, Z. L., & Rodríguez, R. M. (2015). A hesitant fuzzy linguistic TODIM method based on a score function. International Journal of Computational Intelligence Systems, 8(4), 701-712. https://doi.org/10.1080/18756891.2015.1046329
Widyanto, H. A., & Dalimunthe, Z. (2015). Evaluation criteria of venture capital firms investing on Indonesians’ SME. New York: Social Science Electronic Publishing.
Xia, M. M., Xu, Z. S., & Chen, N. (2013). Some hesitant fuzzy aggregation operators with their application in group decision making. Group Decision and Negotiation, 22(2), 259-279. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10726-011-9261-7
Xu, Z. S., & Xia, M. M. (2011). Distance and similarity measures for hesitant fuzzy sets. Information Sciences, 181(11), 2128-2138. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2011.01.028
Yazdipour, R. (2011). Advances in entrepreneurial finance. New York: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-7527-0
Yu, D. J., Zhang, W. Y., & Xu, Y. J. (2013). Group decision making under hesitant fuzzy environment with application to personnel evaluation. Knowledge-Based Systems, 52(6), 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2013.04.010
Yu, D. J., & Li, D. F. (2014). Dual hesitant fuzzy multi-criteria decision making and its application to teaching quality assessment. Journal of Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems, 27(4), 1679-1688.
Zacharakis, A. L., Mcmullen, J. S., & Shepherd, D. A. (2007). Venture capitalists’ decision making across three countries: an institutional theory perspective. Journal of International Business Studies, 38(5), 691-708. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8400291
Zhang, X. L., & Xu, Z. S. (2014). The TODIM analysis approach based on novel measured functions under hesitant fuzzy environment. Knowledge-Based Systems, 61(2), 48-58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2014.02.006
Zhang, X. L., & Xu, Z. S. (2017). Hesitant fuzzy methods for multiple criteria decision analysis (pp. 31-69). Switzerland: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-42001-1
Zhu, B., Xu, Z. S., & Xia, M. M. (2012). Dual hesitant fuzzy sets. Journal of Applied Mathematics, 2012, 2607-2645. https://doi.org/10.1155/2012/879629
Zhu, B., & Xu, Z. S. (2018). Probability-hesitant fuzzy sets and the presentation of preference relations. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 23(3), 1029-1040. https://doi.org/10.3846/20294913.2016.1266529