Does technological progress promote or prevent trade conflict? Evidence from China
Abstract
Using the bootstrap rolling-window subsample Granger causality test from China, this study analyses the influence of technological progress (TP) on trade conflict (TC). The results show that TP can both promote and prevent TC. In 2012 and 2018, TP led to more trade conflicts between China and its trading partners. This result proves the “trade-loss effect”, suggesting that TP in one country promotes TC by threatening other countries’ income. However, TP had a negative influence on TC in 2021 and 2022. This finding is consistent with the “welfare effect”, implying that TP can prevent TC by providing more high-quality and cheaper products for worldwide consumers. This study suggests that the government should adopt appropriate trade policies when encouraging TP to promote bilateral trade. Furthermore, firms should develop their own high-quality irreplaceable products through technological innovation to address TC risk.
First published online 22 March 2024
Keyword : technological progress, trade conflict, rolling-window, bootstrap
How to Cite
Zhao, Q., Su, C.-W., & Dumitrescu Peculea, A. (2024). Does technological progress promote or prevent trade conflict? Evidence from China. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 30(5), 1256–1274. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2024.18691
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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Li, Y., Zhuang, X., Wang, J., & Zhang, W. (2020). Analysis of the impact of Sino-US trade friction on China’s stock market based on complex networks. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 52, 101185. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2020.101185
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Nyblom, J. (1989). Testing for the constancy of parameters over time. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 84(405), 223–230. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1989.10478759
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Park, S. (2020). Trade conflict between the US and China: What are the impacts on the Chinese economy? International Organisations Research Journal, 15(2), 153–168. https://doi.org/10.17323/1996-7845-2020-02-10
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